Ravens Dominate Red Zone Opportunities

The Ravens had an interception end their first red-zone drive of the season vs the Texans.  Since then, they have scored 12 TDs (1 with a 2-point conversion) and 2 FGs to bring their season average to 6.1 points per red-zone drive (PPRZD).  I mentioned recently that level was unsustainable, so the Ravens would have to improve other elements of offensive efficiency to continue scoring at a similar level.

When I made the assertion, I was immediately questioned about the sustainability and did not have a good answer prepared.

With the benefit of some time, we all have expectations of a normal range of outcomes for things we observe regularly. 

For example, if I ask you to predict the batting average to be leading the league at the end of April, I think we’d agree that’s substantially higher than at the end of a season.  I might guess .400, since we know that outcomes vary more when we restrict sample size.

The Ravens red-zone success to date is outside of any historical norms, so we have to expect less from the offense in that particular (critical) dimension.  Efficiency gains in other areas will have to be broad indeed to maintain overall point production, which is currently just 2.04 PPD (14th in the NFL).

Passing Game

Jackson was afforded ample time and space (ATS) on 4 of 22 (18%) drop backs resulting in a pass/sack.  With ATS, he was 4 of 4 for 62 yards (15.5 YPP).

He delivered the ball before pressure could develop (BOQ) 7 times (32%) with 5 complete for 49 yards (7.0 YPP).  He was pressured 11 times (50%), on which he completed 6 of 8 passes for 41 net yards, including 3 sacks (3.7 YPP).

The Ravens failed to generate much in terms of time and space for Jackson, but he had one of the finest games of his career when considering his opportunity set.

By number of pass rushers:

3:  none

4:  19 plays, 119 net yards, 6.3 YPP, 3 sacks

5:  3 plays, 46 net yards, 15.3 YPP

6+:  none

OL Scoring

The Ravens ran 55 scored snaps (excludes accepted penalties which result in no play, kneels, spikes, and special teams plays that result in a run or pass).

Mekari:  Patrick struggled against all-Pro DE Myles Garrett.  He allowed a full sack when beaten outside by DT Elliott (Q1, 9:11) for the initial pressure on which DT Tomlinson assisted.  I charged him for 2/3 of Garett’s sack (Q2, 1:20) when he was beaten inside by a spin move and Simpson was too late with a help block.  His holding flag (Q2, 2:45) negated another QH by Garrett, who beat him outside.  He was bulled then shed by Garrett for another QH (Q4, 8:14).  He allowed two other full pressures (beaten inside by DE Smith Q2, 0:17; beaten outside by DE Garrett Q3, 8:50).  Of his 4 missed blocks, only 1 was a loss at the LoS.  He had 8 blocks in level 2 and delivered 1 pancake.  He scored 0.5 points on 3 pulls.  He had 3 highlights, 2 combination blocks and 1 double seal. 

Scoring:  55 plays, 45 blocks, 4 missed, ¼ penetration, 2 pressures, 1 QH, 1.67 sacks, 1 offensive holding, 21.5 points (.39 per play).  That’s an F even after a maximum adjustment for facing Myles Garrett.

There is no way to paint this as a good game, particularly with the help the Ravens provided him.  However, Patrick did not have a fall-off-the-table performance as we have seen at times from over-matched Ravens tackles vs. Hall of Fame edge rushers.

Simpson:  John continues to struggle with penalties.  He was charged with 1/3 sack described above (Q2, 1:20).  He was stood up and shed by DT Harris (Q3, 3:21) who dropped RB Gordon for a loss of 1 yard.  He was flagged for holding LB Owusu-Koramoah in space to negate Gordon’s PL6 (Q2, 0:43).  Of his 6 missed blocks, 4 were losses at the LoS.  He was pancaked on 1 occasion when he successfully pulled.  He had 1 block in level 2 and delivered 4 pancakes.  He rebounded from a poor pull game vs. the Colts to connect on 7 of 8 pulls.  He had 2 non-combination highlight blocks (maintained position vs. DT Elliott for extended time, Q2, 1:53; hands off DE Smith to Mekari then picks up stunt Garrett, Q2, 0:17).

Scoring:  55 plays, 47 blocks, 6 missed, 1 penetration, 1/3 sack, 1 offensive holding, 37 points (.67 per play).  That’s a D with adjustment.

One reason for optimism for Simpson’s 2023 performance has been the ability to avoid getting flagged as often with better coaching. John has now been flagged 3 times (2 OH, 1 FS) in 269 snaps (1 per 90 snaps) with the Ravens after 17 (2 FS, 13 OH, 2 PF) in 1,545 snaps (1 every 91 snaps) with the Raiders.

Linderbaum:  Tyler returned after a two-week absence and delivered a solid performance.  He was flagged for a false start that stalled the Ravens second drive (Q1, 8:41).  He also shared a penetration when he whiffed on LB Owusu-Koramoah in L2 (Q1, 2:11).  Of his 6 missed blocks 3 were losses at the LoS.  He scored 3 points on 4 pulls.  He had 3 blocks in level 2 but did not deliver a pancake.  He had 1 highlight combination block. 

Scoring: 52 plays, 45 blocks, 6 missed, 1/2 penetration, 1 false start, 41 points (.79 per play).  That’s a C after adjustment.

Zeitler:  Kevin delivered his best performance of the year.  His only negative event was a pressure (bulled by Tomlinson, Q1, 9:36).  Of his 8 missed blocks, 4 were losses at the LoS.  He connected on 3 of 5 pulls.  He had 2 blocks in level 2 and delivered 1 pancake.  He did not have a highlight.

Scoring:  52 plays, 43 blocks, 8 missed, 1 pressure, 41 points (.79 per play). That’s a B- after adjustment.

Moses:  Morgan was struggling prior to departing due to injury. His only negative event was a false start which stalled the Ravens first drive (Q1, 14:17).  Of his 7 missed blocks, 4 were losses at the LoS, including 1 where Jackson ran him out of a pressure (Q2, 1:53).  He had 1 block in level 2 and did not deliver a pancake.  He scored on all 4 of his pulls, including 1 courtesy as the trailer (Jackson’s 10-yard TD, Q1, 6:42).  He did not have a highlight. 

Scoring:  28 plays, 21 blocks, 7 missed, 1 false start, 18 points (.64 per play).  That’s a C- with adjustment.

Faalele:  Daniel replaced Moses and struggled.  He was beaten outside by DE Okoronkwo for S-7 (Q3, 9:33).  Two plays later, he was beaten outside by DE Garrett for a fast QH (Q3, 8:07).  He was bulled by Okoronkwo for a pressure (Q4, 12:04).   Of his 4 missed blocks, 2 were losses at the LoS.  He had 1 block in level 2 and did not deliver a pancake.  He scored 1 point on 2 pulls, including 1 courtesy as the trailer.  He did not have a highlight.   

Scoring:  27 plays, 20 blocks, 4 missed, 1 pressure, 1 QH, 1 sack, 9 points (.33 per play).  That’s an F with adjustment.

Faalele’s play leads me to believe Monken will attempt to “tuck” him (positioning as the inside of 2 tackles to one side of center) using unbalanced line formations vs. the Steelers.

Mustipher:  Sam replaced Linderbaum for the final series and made all 3 of his blocks, including 1 pull.

Cleveland:  Ben replaced Zeitler for the final series and made all 3 of his blocks, including 1 pull.