Death by a Thousand Cuts

The Ravens suffered through a game of self-inflicted problems accruing primarily to the offense and special teams.  Let’s review:

  • The game had 9 combined FG attempts, on which the Ravens got the desired result on 1.  With 1 more they probably would have won the game.
  • The Ravens fumbled twice, each of which led immediately to a score.  Were either avoided, they probably win the game.
  • Justice Hill was stripped by Peyton Wilson for what became the 3rd INT of the season for Jackson.  All 3 have been off the hands of Ravens receivers.
  • Penalties on the offensive line stalled 2 drives.
  • The offense failed a 2-point conversion without threatening the Jackson/Henry mesh point.

In the face of this adversity, the Ravens turned in what was probably their second-best defensive effort of the season (after Buffalo).

What do the Ravens have to be proud about?

  • They held the Steelers to 4/16 on 3rd down
  • The Steelers could manage just 4.1 YPP
  • The Ravens held the Steelers out of the end zone on each of their 4 red zone trips including 1 goal-to-go opportunity
  • They pressured Wilson effectively (see Pass Rush below)
  • The secondary delivered an above-average result for that pressure (see below)

The game severely reduced the Ravens chance to both win the AFCN and the #2 seed that would guarantee a pair of home playoff games.  However, changes in the secondary may mark this game as a turning point in the season.

Secondary Realignment

It was a week of change for the Ravens secondary.  To Summarize:

  • Eddie Jackson did not travel with the team and the reason was described as “not injury related”.  Harbaugh declined comment after the game.  That doesn’t sound like a player who is in the team’s plans moving forward.
  • Marcus Williams played just 1 snap when Kyle Hamilton was sidelined with an injury.  Kyle played every other snap of the game and primarily lined up deep.
  • Ar’Darius Washington played every snap.  Questions remain about his tackling (he missed 3), but he shows no fear in going after larger ball carriers.  He looked solid in coverage with a tackle for a loss of 1 (Q4, 4:09) and a pass completed in front of him for 3 yards on which his MT was cleaned up by Roquan (Q1, 5:10).
  • Tre’Davious White was active for the first time since being acquired and played well in a limited role.  Initially, he was used only in dime packages, but he then replaced Stephens at RCB for the 4th quarter.
  • Stephens was the most frequently targeted CB and surrendered passes of 17 and 37 yards to Pickens.  He was replaced for 2 series after the latter and it’s not immediately clear what his role will be on Monday night.
  • Marlon Humphrey played SCB on all Ravens nickel snaps.  Orr eliminated use of big nickel.
  • Nate Wiggins’ role was expanded to 58 snaps.  Despite a defensive holding flag that negated a sack, he was effective in coverage with just 3 targets for 4 total yards including drive-ending coverage of Van Jefferson (Q3, 1:03) which was dropped by the WR, but would have resulted in a completion short of the marker.
  • Perhaps due to a thin S room, the Ravens shifted from their traditional 3-S/3-CB dime to a 4-CB dime typically reserved for use against teams that run lots of 10 personnel.  Orr inserted this package 8 times which included 7 drive-ending plays.
  • John Harbaugh said that moving Stephens to safety was not in the plans, but one must wonder if that could be back on the table with another challenging game combined with White’s effectiveness at RCB and the dearth of players suited to play the back end.

The Ravens secondary held up their end of the pass-defense partnership in this game (see pass rush below), so I imagine we’ll see more of the same versus the Chargers.

Packages

Note: all snap totals exclude penalties resulting in no play, kneels, spikes, and specials team plays resulting in a run or pass.  As such, they will be lower than other published totals.

The Steelers ran 72 such snaps.

Jumbo (2):  The Ravens used 4 DL along with 2 OLBs, 2 ILBs, 2 S and 1 CB, on 2 plays, both runs for no gain.  2 plays, 0 yards.

Base (15): The Ravens used their base 3-4 defense with 2 ILB on 9 runs for 33 yards and 6 passes for 38 yards. 15 plays, 71 yards, 4.7 YPP. 

Standard Nickel (47): The standard nickel includes 2 DL, 2 OLB, 2 ILB, 3 CB, and 2 S.  It is most frequently used as a response to 11 personnel.  These plays included 20 runs for 88 yards, and 27 passes for 128 yards.  47 plays, 216 yards, 4.6 YPP, 3 sacks.

Dime (8): The Ravens deployed a dime included 2 down linemen, 2 OLB, 1 ILB, 4 CB, and 2 S in obvious passing situations.  These snaps included 7 drive-ending plays. 8 plays, 18 yards, 2.3 YPP, 1 sack, 1 INT.

Pass Rush

Orr again deployed a pass rush with limited numbers and scheme that was nonetheless effective generating pressure.  The coverage took it a step further by holding Wilson well below expectations for his opportunity set.

For the game, Wilson had ATS on 8 of 40 drop backs (20%).  Those plays resulted in 49 yards (6.1 YPP), 1 sack.  However, he also delivered the ball before pressure could develop (BOQ) 16 times (40%) for 75 yards (4.7 YPP).  The Ravens generated a pressure event on 16 plays (40%) on which the Steelers gained 57 net yards (3.6 YPP), including 3 sacks and 1 TO.  Wilson had expected net yards of 220 and actual of 181, falling 39 yards short (1.0 YPP) of the standard for his opportunity set.

Summarizing by number of pass rushers:

3: None

4: 34 plays, 157 yards, 4.6 YPP, 4 sacks, 1 TO

5: 5 plays, 24 yards, 4.8 YPP

6: 1 play, 0 yards

7+: None

Total: 40 plays, 181 yards, 4.5 YPP, 4 sacks, 1 TO

The Ravens rushed 5+ on 6 of 40 drop backs (15%) on which the Steelers averaged 4.0 YPP.

Orr used 5 individual blitzes (.13 per pass play) from off the LoS, all singles.  These 5 plays resulted in 1 sack, 1 late QH (after ATS), 2 ATS, 2 BOQ, and 14 net yards (2.8 YPP). 

The Ravens stunted 2 times, both singles, on which Wilson threw for 6 yards (3.0 YPP). 

The Ravens showed simulated pressure only once, with 2 dropping from the LoS which resulted in Broderick Washington’s sack.  1 play, -10 yards.

I define a deceptive pass rush as incorporating 2 or more of the above elements (off ball blitzes, stunts, and simulated pressures).  The Ravens ran 1 deceptive rush (3%) for -10 yards.

In words, the Ravens used a trivial amount of either deception or numbers but they were uniformly successful when they did.  The 40% aggregate pressure rate was good and the 2:1 relationship of pressures to ATS was outstanding.

Van Noy led the team with contributions to 8 pressure events (1 late QH, 6 full pressures, 1 half pressure).  Oweh had 2 sacks, ½ late sack, 1cleanup QH.  Madubuike had 3 full pressures. That does not include plays where Wilson scrambled for a gain.

Extended Treatment

Tre’Davious White

  • (Q2, 5:32): On 3rd/20, Wilson completed PL8 (8 + 0) [1] to WR Pickens in front of White tackled by A. Washington
  • (Q2, 0:14): On 3rd/5, he knocked down Wilson’s pass intended for Pickens in back of end zone at catch point
  • (Q4, 3:47): On 3rd/10, Wilson again threw for Pickens 34 yards [1] in end zone, White delivered PD/near INT

Tre played just 23 non-penalty snaps but was party to 3 drive-ending plays.  He allowed just 2 completions for 15 yards on 4 targets.  The difference in ball skills between him and Stephens was immediately apparent. 

Kyle Van Noy

  • (Q1, 10:56): He was not fooled on naked boot right and forced Wilson to throw away
  • (Q1, 10:50): He bulled RT Jones to flush Wilson right and throw away as Oweh delivered QH
  • (Q1, 0:31): On 3rd/20, he contained Wilson after late flush and Oweh/Stephens shared credit for sliding S0
  • (Q2, 0:19): He bulled RT Jones for pressure shared with B. Washington as Wilson threw away
  • (Q3, 13:27): He beat RT Jones outside for pressure but Wilson completed PM10 (2 + 8) [3] to Warren
  • (Q3, 2:44): He spun past LT Moore inside for pressure but Wilson completed PL37 (33 + 4) [1] to Pickens over tight Stephens
  • (Q4, 12:58): He was blocked by RT Jones to help lead RB Warren RM9
  • (Q4, 11:48): He bulled RT Jones into cone but Wilson completed PM25 (13 + 12) [3] to TE Washington
  • (Q4, 11:06): He was run out of play by pulling TE Heyward on RB Harris RM13
  • (Q4, 9:39): He contained left side of pocket, ran down Wilson for QH as he threw away
  • (Q4, 9:33): On 3rd/5, he bulled LT Moore for pressure as Wilson’s overthrow was intercepted by Humphrey in end zone
  • (Q4, 7:03): He dropped to cover and Wilson completed PR17 (11 + 6) [4] between and behind him and Simpson in zone
  • (Q4, 5:36): He was kicked out by TE Washington as part of Warren RR6
  • (Q4, 1:02): He was blocked by WR Skowronek as part of QB Fields’ RL9

Kyle comfortably beat Broderick Jones inside, outside, and by bull rush.  The Ravens desperately need his pass rush, but he did not have a good day holding the edge.

Odafe Oweh

  • (Q1, 10:50): On 3rd/8, he delivered clean up QH off initial pressure from Van Noy as Wilson threw away
  • (Q1, 8:02): He and Urban tackled screen left to WR Patterson PL0 (-2 + 2) [2]
  • (Q1, 4:34): He was obstructed by TE Heyward as part of Warren RM6
  • (Q1, 1:12): He dipped past LT Moore outside for fast S-10 with complimentary phoneboothing pressure from T. Jones
  • (Q1, 0:31): On 3rd/20, he and Stephens shared credit as Wilson slid for S0
  • (Q2, 9:51): He was manhandled by TE Washington to lose left edge on Harris RL11
  • (Q2, 8:21): On 3rd/4, he shed RT Jones outside for fast S-4 to force FG
  • (Q2, 0:59): He knocked down Wilson for S-10 but result was negated by review of the previous pass
  • (Q2, 0:56): On 3rd/4, he shouldered past RT Jones inside to flush Wilson RM3, force punt
  • (Q3, 12:54): He stood up TE Freiermuth to hold left edge allowing Smith to knife in for tackle of Warren RL-1

In addition to the 2.5 sacks for which he received credit, Odafe had a QH, missed the tackle on another sack, and had yet another sack negated when a review was initiated just before a play on what became an incomplete pass to Pickens.

Marlon Humphrey

  • (Q1, 12:15): He was blocked by WR Miller as part of Harris RM11
  • (Q1, 10:56): He had tight coverage of TE Freiermuth at LoS which forced Wilson to throw away with pressure from Van Noy
  • (Q1, 4:34): He was run over by Warren on RM6 with 3 YACo
  • (Q2, 11:11): He was bearing down on Pickens as he dropped 14-yard pass [5]
  • (Q2, 9:03): On 2nd/8, he delivered quick tackle of WR Skowronek PL4 (4 + 0) [1]
  • (Q4, 9:33): On 3rd/5, he collected Wilson’s overthrow of TE Washington for INT in end zone
  • (Q4, 7:35): He blitzed unblocked through left B-gap to flush Wilson right then chased down RB Harris PR-1 (-4 + 3) [5] after MT A. Washington

Marlon again delivered contributions in coverage, as a pass rusher, and against the run.  He was targeted 3 times with just 1 completion for 4 yards.

I do not select MVPs after a loss.