Rough Start, Strong Finish

After the first 2 Bears drives, the Ravens trailed 6-0 and had been outsnapped 22-3 while allowing the Bears 9 first downs.

Despite the fact the Ravens had a pair of stops to force field goals driven by pressure events from Mike Green, there was a “here we go again” gloom over the Bank.

The Ravens outscored the Bears 30-10 the rest of the way while outsnapping them 56-40 and holding them scoreless until the fourth quarter.

Bucking Turnover Trends

The Bears entered the game leading the NFL in both takewaways (16) and turnover differential (+11).  Meanwhile, the Ravens had a turnover differential on -7 (31st).

Further reducing expectations of turnover success was the fact that Tyler Huntley was at QB for the Ravens.  Huntley put the ball in jeopardy twice (dropped INT, near fumble when sacked), but deserves most of the credit for the Ravens success.

Nonetheless, the Ravens won the turnover battle 1-0 and their takeaway (Wiggins’ INT) set up a 9-yard TD drive which helped salt away the game.

Caleb Williams had 39 pass plays and the Ravens were able to deliver a PD on only 2 to go with 1 sack.  That dramatically reduced the opportunity set for takeaways.

Roquan’s Return Bolsters Defense

Roquan Smith returned and was outstanding (see Extended Treatment below).  He did not allow a pass over 5 yards and just 1 YAC that was in the black (past the LoS).

The Ravens have big decisions coming this offseason in terms of cuts or extensions for Roquan and Marlon Humphrey.  Any playoff push the Ravens make in 2025 figures to depend heavily on these 2 veterans.

Playing Shorthanded on DL and OLB…Again

For the second consecutive game, the Ravens played shorthanded in the front 5 with just 3 OLB to go with 5 DL.  This came after the loss of their workhorse front-5 defender, Tavius Robinson.

Aeneas Peebles was inactive for the second consecutive game and he was essentially replaced by 3/5-tech Taven Bryan, a former first-round pick of the Jaguars (#29 in 2018, exactly between Hayden Hurst and Lamar Jackson).  Bryan is also undersized by current standards, provides some pass rush value, but is a target in the run game.

Since the Ravens dressed just 3 OLBs, it seemed the activation of Bryan would give the Ravens a second option to set the edge in packages with just 1 OLB but only Urban was used in such a role (see uncovered nickel in Packages below) and only on the first 2 drives.

Carl Lawson will add another body and a background as a situational pass rusher, but he is not a replacement for Robinson and the Ravens will still need to find solutions to set the edge come Thursday in Miami.

Regardless of the individual qualities of the players, I can’t reconcile the risk of dressing just 8 players for the front 5, all of which demand rotational play.

Sauntering Substitution

On one of the more humorous plays of the season (Q4, 5:25), the Bears substituted for a 2nd/5 play which allowed the Ravens to make a late substitution of Bryan and Jones for Okoye and Urban.  Okoye and Urban jogged slowly towards the sideline, killing both play clock and game clock as the official stood over center.  Finally, the official had seen enough and stepped away to allow the play while Okoye and Urban were not yet at the sideline.  At that point, the Ravens sideline signaled them to pick up the pace and they exited before the snap.

This gamesmanship is only captured on the TV copy as each of the coaches views start too late.  It was a good example of the defensive coaches and likely Harbaugh knowing how to manipulate the clock when the opportunity arose.

Where do the Ravens Go from Here?

The Ravens travel to Miami for the game on Thursday.

For multiple reasons, the Ravens need a win versus the Dolphins.  It’s a soft game (Ravens opened as -7.5), and an AFC game which is important for division and wild card tiebreakers.

The Ravens have already clinched no worse than a tie on the important 3rd tiebreaker (common opponents) for the division title by “virtue” of their losses to Houston, Kansas City, and the LA Rams.  It’s an ambitious goal, but the Ravens will need any 4 wins in their remaining 5 division games to secure tiebreakers vs all 3 division opponents.

Perhaps most importantly, the result of the Miami game may determine whether the Ravens are buyers or sellers at trade deadline (November 4th).

Packages

Note: all snap totals exclude penalties resulting in no play, kneels, spikes, and specials team plays resulting in a run or pass.  As such, they will be lower than other published totals.

The Bears ran 62 such snaps.

Base (4): The Ravens used their base 3-4 defense with 2 ILB anticipating runs on early downs.  These plays included 3 runs for 15 yards and 1, 21-yard pass. 4 plays, 36 yards, 9.0 YPP.

Jumbo (1): The Ravens used a package with 5 DL and just 1 in the secondary for 1 goal-line run.  1 play, -1 yard.

Big Nickel (36): This version of the nickel included 2 down linemen, 2 OLB, 2 ILB, 2 CB, and 3 S and was the most common Ravens package.  These plays included 16 runs for 49 yards and 20 passes for 83 yards. 36 plays, 132 yards, 3.7 YPP, 1 TO.

Jumbo Nickel (1): This variant of jumbo nickel included 3 down linemen, 2 OLB, 1 ILB, 3 S, and 2 CB, which happened to be a run.  1 play, 10 yards.

Uncovered Nickel (3): This version of the nickel included 3 down linemen, 1 OLB, 2 ILB, 2 CB, and 3 S as an early-down alternative to big nickel.  This package included Brent Urban replacing an OLB and was used only on the first 2 drives.  These plays included a run for 1 yard and 2 passes for 22 yards. 3 plays, 23 yards, 7.7 YPP.

Dime (17): The Ravens used a 3-safety version of the dime with 2 OLB and either 2 DL/1 ILB or 1 DL/2 ILB.  These included a run for 22 yards and 16 passes for 150 net yards.  17 plays, 172 yards, 10.1 YPP, 1 sack.

Of these dime snaps, 8 included Simpson as a roving pass rusher (he lined up standing inside and outside) with only 1 defensive lineman. The Ravens alternatively used 2 down linemen on 9 snaps.  Jones participated in all dime plays.

Pass Rush

Orr employed some numbers, blitzes, and simulated pressure, but specifically avoided stunts in his scheme to generate pressure vs Williams.  While many opined that scheme would be required to generate pass rush, the defense was most successful when using a vanilla 4-man rush as opposed to numbers or deception.

For the game, Williams had ATS on 13 of 39 drop backs (33%) which is above average.  Those plays gained 114 yards (8.8 YPP) with 1 turnover.  However, he also delivered the ball before pressure could develop (BOQ) 13 times (33%) primarily screens, swings, and slants for 89 yards (6.8 YPP).  The Ravens generated a pressure event on 13 plays (33%), including 1 sack, for a net of 73 yards (5.6 YPP).

Williams exceeded expectation by 42 yards (276 actual less 234 expected, 1.1 YPP) relative to the standard for his opportunity set.  If one deducts 24 yards of intentional grounding penalties, Williams was just 18 yards above expectation (0.5 YPP).

Summarizing by number of pass rushers:

3: 1 play, 9 yards

4: 22 plays, 115 yards, 5.2 YPP, 1 sack, 1 TO

5: 13 plays, 111 yards, 8.5 YPP

6: 3 plays, 41 yards, 13.7 YPP

7+: None

Total: 39 plays, 276 yards, 7.1 YPP, 1 sack, 1 TO

The Ravens rushed 5+ on 16 of 39 drop backs (41%) on which the Bears averaged 9.5 YPP.

Orr used 12 individual blitzes (.31 per pass play) from off the LoS, including 2 doubles.  No player had more than 3 blitzes (Hamilton, Smith each had 3).  These 10 plays resulted in 6 pressures and 4 ATS for 111 net yards (11.1 YPP).  This does not include 14 penalty yards for intentional grounding.

The Ravens only stunted 4 times, including 1 double. These 3 plays totaled 67 yards, (22.3 YPP). 

The Ravens showed simulated pressure 8 times with 2 or 3 dropping from the LoS on each occasion.  These included 1 sack, 1 QH, 1 pressure/intentional grounding, and 5 ATS. 8 plays, 79 yards, 9.9 YPP, 1 sack. This does not include 10 penalty yards for intentional grounding.

I define a deceptive pass rush as incorporating 2 or more of the above elements (off ball blitzes, stunts, and simulated pressures).  The Ravens ran 6 deceptive rushes (15%) which included 2 drive-ending incompletes as well as gains of 16, 27, 25, and 42 yards (18.3 YPP).  

Kyle Van Noy led the team with contributions to 4 pressures, including a 10-yard intentional grounding and a QH. Mike Green delivered his first career sack as well as 2 pressures. No other Raven had more than 2 pressure contributions.

Extended Treatment

Mike Green

  • (Q1, 12:00): He was slow to react to boot right (his side) as Williams threw PR13 (8 + 5) [4] to WR Odunze
  • (Q1, 7:32): On 3rd/5, he chopped past LT Benedet outside for fast S-9 to force FG (1st career sack)
  • (Q1, 0:16): He diagnosed naked boot left for fast pressure as Williams threw away 7 yards [1]
  • (Q1, 0:11): On 3rd/7, he bulled LT Benedet into cone as Williams’ short-footed pass was high and behind Odunze 8 yards [4]
  • (Q2, 8:08): He beat pulling LG Thuney inside as RB Monangai ran into traffic and was cleaned up for RM0 by Smith
  • (Q3, 2:43): He was blocked by Thuney to lose left edge as RB Swift outraced him and Starks for RL13
  • (Q4, 12:26): He was blocked by RT Wright on Swift RR2 TD
      

Mike’s pass rush kept the Ravens in the game on the first 2 drives, including consecutive drive-ending plays.  After 3 pressures on his first 9 pass-rush snaps, he did not record another for the remainder of the game (25 more rush snaps).  The Ravens continue to lean heaviest on Green for snaps (52 of 63 vs Bears, Van Noy 40, Ojabo 30) in the absence of Tavius Robinson.  That workload can’t be helping to stay him fresh as a pass rusher.

Marlon Humphrey

  • (Q1, 13:48): On 2nd/9, he was trailing WR Odunze on PL16 (15 + 1) [2] but made quick tackle
  • (Q1, 11:18): He was blocked in L2 by Odunze to help lead Swift RR7
  • (Q1, 0:11): On 3rd/7, he had tight coverage of Odunze 8 yards [4] as Williams threw high and behind to force FG
  • (Q2, 0:22): He and Smith tackled TE Loveland PL9 (6 + 3) [2] inbounds to force bonzai 58-yard FG attempt which missed to end half
  • (Q4, 14:14): He had TD-saving tackle of Swift PL25 (-8 + 33) [2] screen at 5-yard line
  • (Q4, 7:39): He stood up then stripped WR Zaccheaus for apparent INT or FR ruled PR4 (4 + 0) [5] with forward progress whistled dead
  • (Q4, 5:25): He had tight coverage of Odunze 19 yards [5] as late QH by Van Noy forced throw away OOB
  • (Q4, 1:56): He blitzed and beat RB Monangai for QH off initial pressure from Van Noy as Williams threw PR42 over Hamilton

Marlon had his best coverage game of the season with just 29 yards and 5 YAC allowed on 5 targets.  He was robbed of a potential takeaway by a quick whistle of forward progress.

Roquan Smith

  • (Q1, 4:34): He was blocked by TE Smythe in L2 as part of RB Monangai RR15
  • (Q1, 4:00): On 2nd/10, he made quick tackle of WR Zaccheaus PM4 (4 + 0) [4]
  • (Q2, 8:08): He cleaned up Monangai RM0 off initial penetration by Green
  • (Q2, 7:31): He tripped up RB Swift PR1 (-4 + 5) [4] in open field
  • (Q2, 0:22): On 3rd/15, he assisted Humphrey on tackle of TE Loveland PL9 (6 + 3) [2] to force bonzai missed FG attempt
  • (Q3, 8:46): On 3rd/6, he tackled Zaccheaus PM5 (5 + 0) [4] to force punt
  • (Q3, 2:04): He blitzed unblocked off OLS for pressure as Williams threw PR3 (0 + 3) [4] to WR Moore
  • (Q4, 12:26): On 3rd/goal, he was blocked by climbing RG Jackson to help lead Swift RR2 TD
  • (Q4, 6:00): On 1st/10, he made quick tackle of Zaccheaus PM5 (5 + 0) [4]
  • (Q4, 0:59): On 3rd/1, he assisted Buchanan on RL0 stuff of Williams at 1-yard line

Roquan returned and was the best Ravens defender.  His 12 tackle contributions included 9 defensive wins.  He allowed just 5 YAC on 4 receptions, but 4 of those were red yards by Swift on the open-field tackle noted above.

Nate Wiggins

  • (Q1, 12:00): He was trailing WR Odunze on PR13 (8 + 5) [4] but made tackle
  • (Q1, 9:42): On 3rd/6, he allowed Odunze PR7 (7 + 0) [5] conversion despite quick tackle
  • (Q1, 3:28): On 3rd/6, he was flagged for illegal contact to negate drive-ending incomplete for Odunze 17 yards [4]
  • (Q1, 3:22): On 1st/10, he was beaten outside by Odunze for PR21 (17 + 4) [5]
  • (Q2, 0:57): He was blocked by WR Moore in L3 as part of Williams RR22
  • (Q2, 0:49): He made quick tackle of Zaccheaus PR5 (5 + 0) [4]
  • (Q3, 9:25): On 2nd/7, he made quick tackle of WR Burden on PL-1 (-3 + 2) [2]
  • (Q3, 0:57): On 3rd/6, he was nearest in zone to Odunze PR27 (22 + 5) [5]
  • (Q4, 9:08): He undercut Odunze 15 yards [4] for INT to set-up 2-play TD drive
  • (Q4, 7:59): He had tight coverage of Moore 11 yards [1] as Williams overthrew
  • (Q4, 7:56): On 3rd/10, he had MT of Odunze at 8 yards which allowed PR10 (8 + 2) [5] conversion

Nate struggled with difficult assignments and was often in coverage of Odunze who lit up the secondary for 114 yards.  However, he delivered the game’s biggest play with the Ravens clinging to a 3-point lead in the 4th quarter.

Defensive MVPs

  1. Roquan Smith
  2. Marlon Humphrey
  3. Nate Wiggins

Honorable mention to Mike Green, Kyle Hamilton, and Travis Jones