Winning with the Weather

The Ravens passed the first of 4 (successively more difficult?) tests by thrashing the Bengals 24-0 in the coldest game in team history (10 degrees Fahrenheit at game time)

In addition to a home game vs the Patriots, the Ravens will go to Green Bay and finish the regular season at Pittsburgh.  The next 2 are in prime time and the finale vs the Steelers may also be flexed to Sunday night.  All 3 games carry significant risk of frigid weather and will be played against teams who play their home games in northern climes.

Should the Ravens rise to the challenge the next 3 weeks, they could face up to 3 more weeks of cold weather in January.

Perhaps most impressively, the Ravens approached the weather with a tenacious physical effort and one that won’t make fantasy owners of skill position players on either side happy, including just 12 passes from Lamar Jackson.

One image I’ll take from the game is Dre’Mont Jones’ “crying eyes” gesture to the Bengals following Burrow’s second consecutive flop/flag request.

Is the formula repeatable? Probably not in the same manner, but with suboptimal elements, the Ravens dashed the last playoff hopes from the Bengals, beat them up physically, and had them run out the bulk of the last 7:30 on themselves as Zac Taylor waved the white flag on the game (and the season) with the score 24-0.

Many Happy Returns

In a game with numerous injuries, the Ravens enjoyed the return of 2 key defenders, Ar’Darius Washington and Tavius Robinson.

Robinson delivered a 15-yard sack of Joe Burrow to end the first Bengals drive without points after 11 plays.  It was perhaps the biggest defensive play of the game.  He also delivered a QH to Burrow (uncredited) on Van Noy’s interception which helped force a pass that was far off target.

Washington played SCB in most dime and quarter packages.  His only reception allowed came on a drive-ending play where he and Hamilton took down Drew Sammple for a 7-yard gain on 3rd and 9.  Washington adds a layer of quality depth for both he SCB and safety positions and I expect he’ll continue to be a valuable sub-package player, particularly if either Awuzie or Humphrey miss time.

Four is Enough

The Ravens dressed just 4 defensive linemen, something I’ve been critical of so often, you probably would like to have it as the center space on your bingo card.  Despite allowing the Bengals 71 offensive snaps, I think it’s fair to say the Ravens both stopped the run effectively and generated a credible (not dominant by any means, see below) pass rush.

For the game, the Ravens averaged just 1.66 defensive linemen per play with no jumbo snaps and only 1 snap with 3 DL, so if there ever was a game to activate 4, this was it.

I still hope they don’t do so again.

The Ravens also averaged just 3.98 pass rushers per play, the lowest total I can recall.

Leaning on the 4-man rush was effective vs Burrow and his desire to get the ball out quickly allowed the Ravens to:

  • generate just enough pressure to limit his extended plays
  • play downhill after the catch frequently
  • layer and disguise coverages to generate turnovers

It will not shock me if the Ravens rely similarly on limited pass-rush numbers in any of the next 3 games.

Snap-Count Oddity

The Ravens lost snap count 71-40, including 3 of their own kneels to finish the game.  The 40 snaps matches the fewest ever run by the Ravens in team history (Hou in W5).  It is only the 6th time the team has run fewer than 48 in a game.

Had the Bengals got another first down, they might have run every offensive snap in the fourth quarter.

Who holds the NFL record for fewest offensive snaps in a game?  The Browns ran just 28 snaps in their 43-0 loss at home to the Steelers in week 1 of 1999, the first game for the new Browns.

Tiebreaker Ponderings

Working backwards, the Ravens have 2 major paths to win the AFCN that are much clearer with the elimination of the Bengals.

If they lose the finale to the Steelers: They need to beat both NE and GB while Pittsburgh loses each of their remaining 3 games (Mia, Det, Cle).

If they win the finale vs the Steelers: The only way they lose the AFCN is if they have more total losses vs (NE, GB) than Pittsburgh suffers vs (Mia, Det, Cle).  Based on the win over the Bengals, the Ravens have now clinched all possible 2-way division tiebreakers with the Steelers.  They can do no worse than tie the second (division record) tiebreaker and they already have clinched the third (common opponent) tiebreaker.

Put in other words, the Ravens win the AFCN if they run the table (and thus control their own destiny), but there are several other paths that will also work.

Packages

Note: all snap totals exclude penalties resulting in no play, kneels, spikes, and specials team plays resulting in a run or pass.  As such, they will be lower than other published totals.

The Bengals ran 71 such snaps.

Base (1): The Ravens used their base 3-4 defense on 1 run play, the 4th/1 stop on the Bengals last offensive snap.  1 play, 0 yards.

Big Nickel (40): This version of the nickel included 2 down linemen, 2 OLB, 2 ILB, 2 CB, and 3 S and was the most common Ravens package.  These plays included 21 runs for 70 yards and 19 passes for 101 yards.  40 plays, 171 yards, 4.3 YPP, 1 sack.

Rush Nickel (1): This version of the nickel included 1 down linemen, 3 OLB, and 2 ILB, 3 CB, and 2 S.  The Ravens employed this package only on Van Noy’s interception.  1 plays, 0 yards, 1 TO.

Dime (28): The Ravens used a 3-safety version of the dime with 3 different combinations of DL/OLB/ILB in expected passing situations. These included 7 runs for 30 yards and 21 passes for 97 yards. 28 plays, 127 yards, 4.5 YPP, 2 sacks, 1 TO.

Quarter (1): The Ravens used a 3-safety/4-CB version of the quarter on the next-to-last play of the first half. 1 play, 0 yards.

Pass Rush

Orr used just 3.98 pass rushers per play and the Ravens were most effective when they used no deception.

For the game, Burrow had ATS on 15 of 42 drop backs (36%) which is above average.  Those plays gained 93 yards (6.2 YPP), with 1 sack.  However, he also delivered the ball before pressure could develop (BOQ) 16 times (38%), including  screens, swings, slants, and deep passes outside the numbers for 100 yards (6.3 YPP).  The Ravens generated a pressure event on 11 plays (26%), for a total of 5 yards (0.5 YPP), with 2 sacks and 2 TOs.

Burrow underperformed expectation by 64 yards (198 actual less 262 expected, -1.5 YPP) relative to the standard for his opportunity set.

Summarizing by number of pass rushers:

2: 1 play, 0 yards

3: 1 play, 11 yards

4: 38 plays, 193 yards, 5.1 YPP, 2 sacks, 2 TOs

5: 2 plays, -6 yards, -3.0 YPP, 1 sack

6+: None

Total: 42 plays, 198 yards, 4.7 YPP, 3 sacks, 2 TOs

Orr used 4 individual blitzes (.10 per pass play) from off the LoS, including 1 double.  Simpson was the only player who blitzed twice.  These 3 plays resulted in 1 pressure, 1 BOQ, 1 ATS and 28 yards (9.3 YPP), 1 sack.

The Ravens stunted 13 times, including 3 doubles. These 10 plays resulted in 3 pressures, 3 BOQ, 4 ATS, 52 yards, (5.2 YPP), and 1 sack.

The Ravens showed simulated pressure 4 times (10%) with 2, 3 or 4 dropping from the LoS on each occasion.  These included 2 pressures, 1 BOQ, and 1 ATS. 4 plays, 19 yards, 4.8 YPP, 1 TO.

I define a deceptive pass rush as incorporating 2 or more of the above elements (off-ball blitzes, stunts, and simulated pressures).  The Ravens ran 5 deceptive rushes (12%) which included 2 pressures, 2 BOQ, 1 ATS, 41 yards (8.2 YPP), and 1 sack.

Dre’Mont Jones (1 pressures, 4 QHs, and 1 late QH) led the team with 6 pressure events. Tavius Robinson (S-15, QH, late QH) and Travis Jones (S-5, 2 pressures, QH negated by accepted holding penalty) each had 3.

Extended Treatment

Alohi Gilman

  • (Q2, 14:17): On 3rd/4, he made quick tackle of WR Chase PL2 (2 + 0) [1] to bring up 4th/2
  • (Q2, 11:48): On 3rd/5, he was in position for loose-bracket INT but Chase tipped ball to Humphrey
  • (Q2, 1:24): On 2nd/19, he delivered PD at catch point vs. TE Hudson 10 yards [2]
  • (Q3, 14:13): He and D. Jones were closest in zone on Chase PR34 (15 + 19) [4]
  • (Q3, 12:44): He slowed Chase on PM4 (4 + 0) [4], slipped off tackle, and was credited with assist of Hamilton
  • (Q3, 8:59): He delivered quick tackle on RB Brown PR2 (1 + 1) [2]
  • (Q3, 6:56): On 1st/10, he did not bite on TE Gesicki route but stayed with TE Hudson for tackle PL1 (0 + 1) [1]
  • (Q4, 12:10): On 4th/6, he missed tackle at 12 yards on Chase PL27 (10 + 17) [1] then recovered to push OOB
  • (Q4, 8:43): He cleaned up Smith’s missed tackle at 5 yards on Chase PM6 (3 + 3) [2]
  • (Q4, 7:55): He took hand off from Van Noy after INT and returned 84 yards for TD
     

Alohi had contributions to 2 drive-ending plays and 4 tackles which were defensive wins.  That said, it was the play he didn’t make where he was set up for a loose-bracket INT that I appreciated.

Dre’Mont Jones

  • (Q1, 11:15): He backed up then shed TE Sample to assist Buchanan on tackle of RB Brown RM1
  • (Q2, 11:48): On 3rd/5, he bulled LT Brown then knocked down Burrow for QH as Humphrey intercepted tipped pass
  • (Q2, 1:29): On 2nd/9, he drew hold from LT Brown
  • (Q2, 1:20): On 3rd/19, he chased Burrow roll right for late QH, flop for flag, crying eyes gesture, forced punt
  • (Q2, 0:18): He had late pressure of Burrow who grounded ball 7 yards [3] as Robinson delivered late QH
  • (Q3, 14:13): He and Gilman were closest in zone on Chase PR34 (15 + 19) [4]
  • (Q3, 11:55): On 4th/4, he set pick in left B-gap then beat LG Fairchild outside for fast QH as Burrow threw incomplete for Gesicki 32 yards [2] for turnover on downs
  • (Q4, 12:14): On 3rd/6, he beat LT Brown outside for fast QH, near sack, as Burrow threw incomplete behind Chase
  • (Q4, 11:06): He bulled RT Mims then beat him outside after help block from RG Risner for QH on Brown PL3
  • (Q4, 9:45): He was offsides (declined) on Brown PM9 (5 + 4) [4]
  • (Q4, 8:00): He bulled RT Ford into Burrow as he threw incomplete for WR Tinsley in back of endzone

Dre’Mont was a wrecking ball in the pass rush with 5 QHs and contributed to 3 drive-ending plays.  He was as physical as any Raven on a day where that was central to the team’s lopsided win.

Roquan Smith

  • (Q2, 15:00): He forced slide of Burrow on RR3 scramble
  • (Q2, 13:18): He was blocked by RT Mims in L2 as part of RB Brown RM10
  • (Q2, 11:48): He had tight underneath coverage of WR Chase who tipped pass, intercepted by Humphrey
  • (Q2, 0:12): He was deep in zone underneath as Burrow completed PL11 (4 + 7) [1] to Chase
  • (Q2, 0:01): He was approaching Burrow as Green delivered S-7 on final play of half
  • (Q3, 11:55): On 4th/4, he had tight underneath coverage of TE Gesicki 32 yards [2] as ball was incomplete for turnover on downs
  • (Q3, 6:14): On 2nd/9, he tackled RB Perine PR1 (-6 + 7) [4]
  • (Q4, 8:43): He missed tackle at 5 yards on Chase PM6 (3 + 3) [2]
  • (Q4, 7:32): He was blocked by RT Ford as part of RB Brown RM7
  • (Q4, 2:08): On 4th/1, he exploded into gap created by Jenkins penetration vs. C Karras to tackle Perine RM0 for turnover on downs

Of Roquan’s 14 tackle contributions, 7 resulted in defensive wins.  He had contributions to 4 drive-ending plays.

Kyle Van Noy

  • (Q2, 13:32): On 4th/2, he was offsides for conversion
  • (Q3, 12:00): On 3rd/4, he stunted through right A-gap for fast QH, near intentional grounding as Burrow threw incomplete to bring up 4th/4
  • (Q3, 5:30): On 3rd/8, he directed Burrow OOB for RR2 (essentially S+2) to force punt
  • (Q4, 7:55): On 3rd/7, he dropped to cover, intercepted Burrow’s pressured throw, handed to Gilman for touchdown return

Kyle had 2 sacks that weren’t (unflagged intentional grounding, S+2) and had contributions to 2 drive-ending plays.

MVPs

  1. Alohi Gilman
  2. Roquan Smith
  3. Dre’Mont Jones

Honorable mention: John Jenkins, Travis Jones, Tavius Robinson, Kyle Van Noy, Ar’Darius Washington