Defense Falters Under Offensive Mistakes, Snap Count

The defense kept the Ravens in the game until the 4th quarter but was ultimately unable to overcome offensive failures.  Let’s review:

  • The Ravens lost the turnover battle 5-1
  • The Bengals average starting field position was their 47-yard line as compared to the 26 for the Ravens
  • The defense held the Bengals to 1 TD in 6 red-zone drives
  • They Bengals were only 3/11 on 3rd down in the first half but converted 5 of 8 times after halftime with 2 more conversions by penalty that are not included in those stats
  • The defense both denied Burrow and outstanding opportunity set and held him below his expected yards (see pass rush below)
  • The Bengals rushed for 3.9 YPC
  • Despite the fact the Ravens allowed just 4.8 YPP, the Bengals had 80 offensive snaps to just 57 for Baltimore

It’s honestly surprising the defense was able to keep the game as close as they did, given these difficult circumstances.

Unexpected Activations

The defense had 2 unexpected activations.  Carl Lawson was active for the first time over David Ojabo as the 4th OLB.  Lawson has been on the practice squad for 5 weeks before activation, including 3 games in which the Ravens activated only 3 OLBs.

The Ravens continue to have need for an OLB whose primary skill/assignment is edge setting.  All 4 OLBs who dressed on Thursday night might be better suited as situational pass rushers.

Aeneas Peebles was also active for the first time since week 5 vs Houston.  He replaced Taven Bryan (IR) as the 5th DL but played just 4 snaps, all in obvious passing situations.

It was not a benefit to DL fatigue to have just 4 DL sharing 147 snaps.

Streaky Defense

The first quarter was comprised of 2 long streaks for the Ravens defense.

They began the game with defensive losses on the game’s first 7 plays.  Those are defined as plays where the offense stays “on schedule” for a first down based on the old Football Outsiders definition.

After those 7 plays allowed the Bengals to drive to the Ravens 16, the defense then stiffened and won the next 13 plays through the last play of quarter 1, spanning 4 drives.  To detail further by drive:

Drive 1: After 1st/10 at the 16, the Ravens held the Bengals to 4th/7 at the 13 and they settled for a FG

Drive 2: Humphrey sacked Burrow on 1st down and the Bengals went 3-and-out

Drive 3: The Bengals took over at the Ravens 2-yard line after Jackson’s fumble and ran 4 plays for no gain and a turnover on downs

Drive 4: The Bengals finished the quarter at 3rd and 11 after 2 plays gained 4 yards and were followed by a false start

Despite the good start to that 4th drive, the Bengals would convert and drive for a FG early in the second quarter.

Looking Ahead to the Steelers

The Ravens opened vs the Steelers as 6.5 point favorites at home, a line that may change with news on Wiggins or the Steelers/Bills result.

With an outstanding tiebreaker situation, the Ravens may be able to win the AFCN at 9-8, but that will probably require a win vs the Bengals in Cincinnati and either 1 or 2 wins vs the Steelers.

Using the best odds on all 4 teams, the Ravens now have an implied 60% chance to win the AFCN, down from 77% prior to the Bengals game.

Packages

Note: all snap totals exclude penalties resulting in no play, kneels, spikes, and specials team plays resulting in a run or pass.  As such, they will be lower than other published totals.

The Bengals ran 80 such snaps.

Jumbo (1): The Ravens used a package with 4 DL and just 3 in the secondary for 1 goal line run.  1 play, 0 yards.

Base (2): The Ravens used their base 3-4 defense on 2 plays. These included 1 run for 18 yards and 1 incomplete pass.  2 plays, 18 yards, 9.0 YPP.

Big Nickel (53): This version of the nickel included 2 down linemen, 2 OLB, 2 ILB, 2 CB, and 3 S and was the most common Ravens package.  These plays included 27 runs for 92 yards and 26 passes for 107 yards.  53 plays, 199 net yards, 3.8 YPP, 1 sack, 1 TO.

Uncovered Nickel (3): This version of the nickel included 3 down linemen, 1 OLB, 2 ILB, 2 CB, and 3 S as an early-down version of big nickel.  This package included Brent Urban replacing an OLB and was used on 3 run plays.  3 plays, 6 yards, 2.0 YPP.

Dime (21): The Ravens used a 3-safety version of the dime with 1 DL and either 3 OLB/1 ILB or 2 OLB/2 ILB.  These included 1 run for 12 yards and 20 passes for 147 net yards.  21 plays, 159 yards, 7.6 YPP.

Of these dime snaps, 7 included Simpson as a roving pass rusher (he lined up standing inside and outside) with only 1 defensive lineman. The Ravens alternatively used 3 OLBs on the other 14 dime snaps.  Travis Jones participated in all but 3 of these dime snaps.

Pass Rush

Orr used minimal numbers but lots of deception to pressure Burrow.

For the game, Burrow had ATS on 15 of 47 drop backs (32%) which is slightly above average.  Those plays gained 140 yards (9.3 YPP).  However, he also delivered the ball before pressure could develop (BOQ) 19 times (40%), primarily screens, swings, and slants, for 99 yards (5.2 YPP).  The Ravens generated a pressure event on 13 plays (28%), including 1 sack, for a net of 15 yards (1.2 YPP).

Burrow fell short of expectation by 33 yards (254 actual less 287 expected, -0.7 YPP) relative to the standard for his opportunity set.

Summarizing by number of pass rushers:

3: 4 plays, 18 yards, 4.5 YPP

4: 35 plays, 200 yards, 5.7 YPP

5: 5 plays, 43 yards, 8.6 YPP

6: 3 plays, -7 yards, -2.3 YPP, 1 sack

7+: None

Total: 47 plays, 254 yards, 5.4 YPP, 1 sack

Orr used 9 individual blitzes (.19 per pass play) from off the LoS, including 2 doubles.  No player had more than 3 blitzes (Humphrey).  These 7 plays resulted in 3 pressures, 3 BOQ, and 1 ATS. 33 yards (4.7 YPP), 1 sack.

The Ravens stunted 14 times, including 2 doubles. These 12 plays totaled 80 yards, (6.7 YPP).

The Ravens showed simulated pressure 10 times (21%) with 2, 3, or 4 dropping from the LoS on each occasion.  These included 3 QHs, no other pressures, 4 BOQs and 3 ATS (including 1 late QH). 10 plays, 75 yards, 7.5 YPP.

I define a deceptive pass rush as incorporating 2 or more of the above elements (off ball blitzes, stunts, and simulated pressures).  The Ravens ran 10 deceptive rushes (21%) which included 1 sack for 43 net yards (4.3 YPP).

Travis Jones (3 pressures, late QH) and Mike Green (QH, 2 pressures, late QH) tied for the team lead with contributions to 3 pressure events. No other player had more than 2 such contributions.

Extended Treatment

Travis Jones

  • (Q1, 10:36): He bulled LG Fairchild into cone for pressure as Burrow threw incomplete for WR Tinsley 13 yards [1]
  • (Q2, 1:35): He was pancaked by LG Fairchild and C Karras as part of RB Brown RM12
  • (Q2, 1:07): He stunted through right B-gap for late QH as Burrow threw PM14 to Tinsley
  • (Q2, 0:21): He bulled RG Risner for pressure as Burrow misfired 5 yards [1] for TE Fant
  • (Q3, 12:48): He was blocked by LT Brown and LG Fairchild as part of RB Brown RM6
  • (Q3, 2:30): He bulled then beat RG Risner inside for pressure as Burrow threw incomplete for Tinsley 27 yards [5]
  • (Q4, 7:11): He was blocked by LT Brown as part of RB Brown RL8
  • (Q4, 5:06): On 3rd/6, he penetrated unblocked through left A-gap to strip/recover RB Perine RFM-2

Travis continues to excel as both a pass rusher and run defender.  Of his 6 tackle contributions, 5 were defensive wins.

Chidobe Awuzie

  • (Q2, 1:15): He pushed RB Brown OOB after PL5 (-1 + 6) [1]
  • (Q2, 0:58): He was closest in coverage as WR Tinsley dropped 10-yard pass [1]
  • (Q2, 0:49): On 3rd/10, he had PD at catch point vs. WR Chase 25 yards [1] to force punt
  • (Q2, 0:28): He tackled RB Brown PL4 (3 + 1) [1] to force last time out
  • (Q3, 12:00): On 3rd/4, he was trailing as Burrow completed PM6 (6 + 0) [2]
  • (Q3, 0:24): On 2nd/9, he stripped WR Tinsley 13 yards [2] for PD
  • (Q4, 12:18): He was bearing down on WR Chase 7 yards [1] as ball went incomplete off hands
  • (Q4, 10:50): His soft coverage allowed Burrow pass to Chase PL10 (10 + 0) [1]
  • (Q4, 3:27): He had MT at 5 as part of RB Brown RL11

Chidobe may have a full-time role again if Wiggins misses time.  He was targeted 8 times for just 25 yards in this game and has allowed just 5.3 YPT for the season.

Nate Wiggins

  • (Q1, 14:54): He was run into by Gilman which allowed Burrow to complete PL8 (-1 + 9) [1] to WR Tinsley
  • (Q1, 10:36): He had PD on sideline by pushing Tinsley OOB 13 yards [1]
  • (Q1, 5:47): He had tight trailing coverage of Chase 12 yards [5] as Burrow overthrew incomplete
  • (Q1, 2:42): He registered PD vs. WR Iosivas by left pylon to bring up 4th/2
  • (Q1, 1:33): He shouldered Brown towards left sideline (MT?) where Buchanan pushed OOB RL1
  • (Q2, 15:00): On 3rd/11, he had trailing coverage of Chase on PR13 (12 + 1) [5]
  • (Q2, 4:10): On 3rd/10, he was trailing WR Chase on PR15 (15 + 0) [5]
  • (Q2, 2:43): He had tight coverage of Chase in endzone as Burrow threw OOB to force FG
  • (Q2, 1:07): He was closest on PM14 (14 + 0) [3] to Tinsley

Nate allowed 42 yards on 7 targets before leaving the game with a foot injury.  He’s been one of the players who has given Orr some defensive flexibility this season and the defense will be stretched to account for his loss if he misses time.

I do not include defensive MVPs after a loss.