Defense Again Leads Way

The Ravens defense again overcame a sputtering red-zone performance (2 of 5) by the offense to put away a lesser opponent in the second half.  Let’s review:

  • The Ravens won the turnover battle 2-0 and now have a 10-3 takeaway advantage over the 5-game win streak
  • They continue to generate turnovers with an effective combination of game script, QB reads, and 2nd-man chances
  • They Jets were 4/11 on 3rd down which is about average but 0/2 on 4th down, so the Ravens won the highest leverage snaps
  • The team delivered one of its best pressure performances of the season (see below) including 3 sacks plus a fourth wiped out by an accepted holding penalty
  • The Jets rushed for just 3.0 YPC
  • Orr’s defense extended their streak to 6 games of 19 or fewer points allowed
  • Jordan Stout had the best day of his career with punts of 67 and 74 yards (tied Sam Koch’s team record set in 2008)

Despite all the success, one cannot help but feel the offense is going to have to make it easier at some point.

Old Friend Flashes vs Ravens

Tyrod Taylor did not make it easy for his former team.  To summarize:

  • He outperformed his opportunity set by 33 yards with the help of significant YAC and a key missed tackle by Gilman
  • He did not turn the ball over until the final minute
  • He scrambled for a pair of first downs
  • He found WR John Metchie and RB Breece Hall in space for good YAC plays

At age 36, Taylor is a caretaker, but he did nothing to imperil his starting job in the loss to the Ravens.

The Titans are currently in possession of the top selection in the draft which would put them (with Ward at QB) in position to extract a huge ransom from the Jets, Browns, Raiders, or Saints if a consensus develops to value the top QB considerably ahead of the others.

Dependence on Hamilton

Hamilton’s injury demonstrated the Ravens dependence on their superstar safety.  The Ravens defensive turnaround coincided with Hamilton’s move to SCB and the team’s unwavering commitment to big nickel. 

He twice left the field including the scariest moment of the day when he slammed his helmet on the sideline after rolling his ankle late in the game.  Earlier, he had missed 2 plays with recurrence of a right shoulder injury.

Does Hamilton face more injury risk in a role where he’s utilized closer to the line of scrimmage?  Almost certainly.  However, any chance the Ravens have to make a deep playoff run may well require his ability to deliver impactful plays in that role.

Season Starts Thursday

The Ravens have made the long road back to the division lead much faster than expected, yet in some ways the journey is about to begin.  To summarize:

  • The Ravens face the Bengals on Thanksgiving night in what may be the return of Joe Burrow
  • In 6 remaining games, they’ll face the Steelers twice, the Bengals twice, and playoff-bound New England and Green Bay
  • The defense is playing well, but has not faced a good QB since Stafford in week 6
  • They may be able to clinch the AFCN prior to playing their last 2 on the road, however, they the number 3 seed could be in reach in those games, making a rest opportunity costly
  • With an outstanding tiebreaker situation, the Ravens may be able to win the AFCN at 9-8
  • Playoff viability will be lab tested over the next 6 weeks and is closely tied to the health of their biggest stars, Hamilton and Jackson

Packages

Note: all snap totals exclude penalties resulting in no play, kneels, spikes, and specials team plays resulting in a run or pass.  As such, they will be lower than other published totals.

The Jets ran 57 such snaps.

Base (5): The Ravens used their base 3-4 defense with 2 ILB on 5 plays. These included 3 runs for 5 yards and 2 passes for 20 yards.  5 play, 25 yards, 5.0 YPP.

Standard Nickel (5): The standard nickel includes 2 down linemen, 2 OLB, 2 ILB, 3 CB, and 2 S.  These plays included 1 run for -1 yard and 4 pass plays for 26 yards.  5 plays, 25 yards, 5.0 YPP.

The Ravens employed this package only with Hamilton injured and it was their first use of the standard nickel since week 5 against Houston.

Big Nickel (27): This version of the nickel included 2 down linemen, 2 OLB, 2 ILB, 2 CB, and 3 S and was the most common Ravens package.  These plays included 17 runs for 59 yards and 10 passes for 115 yards. 27 plays, 174 yards, 6.4 YPP, 1 TO.

Uncovered Nickel (2): This version of the nickel included 3 down linemen, 1 OLB, 2 ILB, 2 CB, and 3 S as an early-down alternative to big nickel.  This package included Brent Urban replacing an OLB.  These plays included 1 run for 2 yards and 1 pass for 10 yards. 2 plays, 12 yards, 6.0 YPP.

Rush Nickel (2): The Ravens used a rush nickel with 1 DL, 2 ILB (once also with 2 DL, 1 ILB), 3 OLB, 3 CB, and 2 S on 2 obvious passing downs.  2 plays, -8 yards, -4.0 YPP, 1 sack.

Dime (16): The Ravens used a 3-safety version of the dime with 1 DL and either 3 OLB/1 ILB or 2 OLB/2 ILB.  These included 4 runs for 13 yards and 12 passes for 41 net yards.  16 plays, 54 yards, 3.4 YPP, 2 sacks, 1 TO.

Of these dime snaps, 6 included Simpson as a roving pass rusher (he lined up standing inside and outside) with only 1 defensive lineman. The Ravens alternatively used 3 OLBs on the other 10 dime snaps.  Travis Jones participated in all but the last 2 dime snaps.

Pass Rush

Orr committed conservative numbers and was also miserly with deception.

For the game, Taylor had ATS on 10 of 31 drop backs (32%) which is slightly above average.  Those plays gained 82 yards (8.2 YPP) with 1 TO.  However, he also delivered the ball before pressure could develop (BOQ) 5 times (16%) primarily screens, swings, and slants for 46 yards (9.2 YPP).  The Ravens generated a pressure event on 16 plays (52%), including 3 sacks and 1 TO, for a net of 76 yards (4.8 YPP).

Taylor exceeded expectation by 33 yards (204 actual less 171 expected, 1.1 YPP) relative to the standard for his opportunity set.  Taylor’s success was largely due to the fact the Jets had 75% (153 of 204) of their passing yards as YAC.

Summarizing by number of pass rushers:

3: None

4: 23 plays, 126 yards, 5.5 YPP, 3 sacks, 1 TO

5: 7 plays, 78 yards, 11.1 YPP

6: None

7: 1 play, 0 yards

Total: 31 plays, 204 yards, 6.6 YPP, 3 sacks, 1 TO

Orr used 8 individual blitzes (.26 per pass play) from off the LoS, including 2 doubles.  No player had more than 3 blitzes (Smith).  These 6 plays resulted in 4 pressures, 1 BOQ, and 1 ATS. 57 yards (11.4 YPP). 

The Ravens stunted 5 times, all singles. These 5 plays totaled 8 net yards, (1.6 YPP), including 3 sacks. 

The Ravens showed simulated pressure 5 times (16%) with 2 or 3 dropping from the LoS on each occasion.  These included 1 sack, 1 QH, 1 pressure, 1 PD, and 1 BOQ. 5 plays, 14 net yards, 2.8 YPP, 1 sack.

I define a deceptive pass rush as incorporating 2 or more of the above elements (off ball blitzes, stunts, and simulated pressures).  The Ravens ran 5 deceptive rushes (16%) which included 1 sack for 33 net yards (6.6 YPP). 

Dre’Mont Jones (S-8, ½ S-8, 1.5 pressures, PD) and Mike Green (S-2, QH, 2 half pressures, full pressure)  tied for the team lead with contributions to 5 pressure events. No other player had more than 2 such contributions.

Extended Treatment

Kyle Hamilton

  • (Q1, 8:22): He set the left edge vs. TE Taylor allowing Green and Jenkins to clean up RB Hall RL1
  • (Q1, 6:26): He jumped past FB Beck inside to tackle RB Davis RL2
  • (Q1, 5:07): On 3rd/7, he stood up then shed LG Simpson to tackle RB Davis RM2 with T. Jones to force punt after failure to draw offsides
  • (Q1, 0:11): He shed TE Ruckert to win left edge then tackled Hall RL0
  • (Q2, 8:35): He was blocked by RB Hall as part of QB Taylor RR8
  • (Q2, 7:48): He cleaned up on tackle of Hall PR14 (0 + 14) [4] and injured shoulder forcing a 2-play absence
  • (Q2, 4:09): On 3rd/10, he bulled LT Fashanu into QB Taylor to phonebooth pocket as he threw PL13 to WR Metchie
  • (Q3, 3:33): He delivered quick push OOB on Metchie PR2 (2 + 0) [5]
  • (Q4, 3:11): He injured his ankle while containing QB Taylor RL1 and did not return
      

Kyle continues to astound not only as a pass rusher, but in terms of his ability to bull offensive linemen and TEs with long arms and outstanding leverage (see Q1, 5:07; Q2, 4:09 above).  It is not normal for anyone but elite edge defenders to be effective with such size disadvantages.

Mike Green

  • (Q1, 8:22): He cleaned up RB Hall RL1 with Jenkins
  • (Q2, 4:56): He assisted Starks on tackle of Hall RM0
  • (Q2, 4:13): He bulled LT Fashanu into Taylor for pressure as he overthrew WR Mitchell in endzone
  • (Q2, 4:09): He shouldered LG Simpson into cone with complementary phoneboothing from Hamilton as Taylor threw PL13 to Metchie
  • (Q2, 1:30): He spun to drive LT Fashanu into cone as D. Jones also pressured and Taylor threw PL14 to Metchie
  • (Q2, 1:02): He beat LT Fashanu outside for fast QH as Taylor overthrew Mitchell 27 yards [1]
  • (Q2, 0:38): He lost another half sack when he missed by whiff over duck of Taylor while D. Jones had him by ankle
  • (Q3, 2:22): He beat RT Membou outside and missed on sack at -6 to flush Taylor for RR8 conversion
  • (Q3, 0:41): He chased Taylor left off initial pressure from Smith where the QB delivered PL26 to Mitchell
  • (Q4, 0:35): He bulled LT Fashanu into cone then tripped Taylor for S-2

Green now leads the Ravens with 2.5 sacks for the season despite missing 1.5 more in this game.  He played 38 snaps (64%) which is a lot for a rookie and likely to increase if Dre’Mont Jones misses time.

Nate Wiggins

  • (Q1, 14:17): He undercut WR Mitchell 15 yards [1] for uncredited PD, but dropped room-service INT
  • (Q2, 9:56): He was soft in coverage of Metchie PL19 (6 + 13) [2] cleaned up by Starks
  • (Q2, 5:37): He was blocked by WR Mitchell as part of Hall RL8
  • (Q2, 4:13): He and Gilman had tight bracket of Mitchell in endzone as Taylor overthrew
  • (Q3, 6:42): On 4th/2, he had underneath coverage of Metchie 10 yards [5] as Taylor underthrew
  • (Q4, 2:13): He had tight boundary coverage of Mitchell 41 yards [5] and was pushed down but catch was OOB

Nate blanketed Mitchell effectively and surrendered just 1 completion for 19 yards on 5 targets (3.8 YPT).

Dre’Mont Jones

  • (Q2, 14:22): On 3rd/8, he beat RT Membou inside for pressure/PD to force punt
  • (Q2, 1:30): He beat C Myers left for pressure with Green as Taylor threw PL14 to Metchie
  • (Q2, 0:38): On 3rd/2, he stunted past Membou outside to sack Taylor by ankle to force punt
  • (Q3, 6:42): On 4th/2, he bulled RG Tippmann into Taylor as he underthrew Metchie 10 yards [5] for turnover on downs
  • (Q3, 0:06): He tackled Taylor on read option keeper RL0
  • (Q4, 6:58): He was blocked by RT Membou as part of Hall RR9 with FF Humphrey and FR Gilman
  • (Q4, 3:11): He contained Taylor RL1 for Hamilton tackle
  • (Q4, 2:36): He dragged Metchie’s route too far up seam which allowed Taylor completion to WR Lazard PR9 (4 + 5) [4]
  • (Q4, 1:56): On 3rd/6, he beat RG Tippmann outside for S-8 shared with Bryan

He led the team with contributions to 3 drive-ending plays.

Dre’Mont had 1.5 sacks as recorded in the Gamebook.  However, if that were to be changed and the Ravens go on to make the playoffs, the pick traded for Dre’Mont would be upgraded from a 5th to a 4th round selection. 

Defensive MVPs

  1. Mike Green
  2. Dre’Mont Jones
  3. Kyle Hamilton

Honorable mention to Marlon Humphrey, Travis Jones, and Kyle Van Noy