Defense Overcomes Adversity in Cleveland

The Ravens came back to beat the Browns with a stifling, second-half defensive effort in a game the offense nearly threw away in the first 30 minutes.  Let’s review:

  • The Ravens lost turnover battle 3-1 after a 7-0 takeaway advantage over the last 3 weeks
  • They surrendered 10 points off turnovers including a pick-6 the defense could not fix
  • The offense turned over the Ravens only takeaway on next play
  • Jake Hummel gave the Browns a new set of downs with an offsides with Cleveland in punt formation
  • LaJohntay Wester muffed a punt to set the Browns up at the 6-yard line, but the defense held them to a FG
  • Lamar Jackson had one of his worst ever games (10/6/19 at Pit and 11/28/21 vs Cle are both close–the Ravens won those as well)
  • The pass blocking surrendered 5 sacks, including 4 by Myles Garrett on just 30 pass plays

It was the best performance by the defense this season.

“He can’t be any worse”

Shedeur Sanders has been an enigma to date in terms of both his draft position and the choice of the Browns to commit to him as a starter over Dillon Gabriel.

For weeks, Browns fans have opined both that the team needs to see who Sanders is as a QB (very reasonable) and that “he can’t be any worse” than Gabriel.

On Sunday, Gabriel did almost everything at the level to which Browns fans are accustomed.  He had an 88.7 passer rating (season 80.8), took a sack to maintain his 9% sack rate, and threw for 5.5 net YPP (season 4.0) before leaving with a head injury at halftime.

Sanders played the entire second half and completed 4 of 16 passes for 20 net yards (5 if you deduct a 15-yard intentional grounding) on 18 plays including 2 sacks and 1 interception.  He fell short of his expected yards for his opportunity set by 4.5 YPP, the single worst figure I can recall.

Despite the failure, playing Sanders in 2025 may well be the correct choice for the Browns who may need to pivot to another QB in 2026 and stand to have the draft capital to do so. 

All that said, Sanders’ woes are a cautionary tale for the Ravens, who are a contending team with below-average performance at guard.  The coaches are continuously evaluating the performance of the IOL with respect to possible replacement from Emery Jones, Corey Bullock, or Ben Cleveland.  While a change (or rotation) may occur at some point, both Faalele and Vorhees have performed above the replacement level and it’s quite possible changes may worsen the situation at either position.

Dominating High-Leverage Downs

The Ravens stifled the Browns on the highest leverage plays on Sunday.  Let’s review:

  • The Browns went 2 of 14 on 3rd down and 0 of 1 on 4th down
  • The Ravens dime package (inserted for obvious passing downs) allowed just 9 yards on 18 plays (0.5 YPP)
  • Run results were barbelled so the Browns were unable to put together a single TD drive on offense despite 4.2 YPC
  • Sanders and Gabriel combined for just 1 first down rushing on 5 carries
  • The Ravens managed to get pressure whenever they dialed up deception vs Sanders in the second half (See Pass Rush below)

One thing that had been missing from the Ravens recent defensive improvement had been the outstanding dime play seen in Cleveland.  That is a welcome (and necessary) change that bodes well for the Ravens playoff hopes.

Divisional and Conference Relativity

Despite failing to pick up a game on the Steelers, the Ravens made some relative progress in the division.  To summarize:

  • While the win by the Steelers seems bad on the surface, it came with injuries to Rodgers and Warren who are 2 of their most important offensive players
  • With losses, the Bengals and Browns are all but eliminated
  • The Bengals may be incented to wait to activate Burrow until after the Ravens game
  • The Ravens need to win 3 of 4 vs Bengals and Steelers to secure all possible tiebreakers within the division
  • The Ravens have clinched the critical 3rd tiebreaker (common opponents, after HTH and divisional record) vs both the Steelers and Bengals, so they can lose 1 to Pit and 1 to Cin and still hold all 2-way division tiebreakers

Within the larger AFC, the Ravens got some good news for both 2025 and potentially 2026:

  • All 4 current division leaders (NE, Pit, Ind, and Den) are flawed and 3 have significant QB issues
  • This may be a rare season where the #3 or #4 seed could play at home in the AFCC
  • KC and Buffalo may be wild cards (or out) and if so would likely have to play in Baltimore during the playoffs
  • If either (or both) come alive (as wild cards), they could clear a path to AFCC in Baltimore
  • The Chargers have significant issues at OT and Justin Herbert had to leave their lopsided loss to the Jags after a big hit from BJ Green
  • The Texans squeaked past the Titans 16-13 to even their record at 5-5 and hold the HTH tiebreaker for a wild card vs the Ravens

If the Ravens are able to secure the AFCN over the final 7 weeks and the Bills and Chiefs do not win their respective divisions, the Ravens will not play either in 2026.

Packages

Note: all snap totals exclude penalties resulting in no play, kneels, spikes, and specials team plays resulting in a run or pass.  As such, they will be lower than other published totals.

The Browns ran 54 such snaps.

Base (1): The Ravens used their base 3-4 defense with 2 ILB on 1 run play.  1 play, 3 yards.

Jumbo (2): The Ravens used a package with 4 DL and just 3 in the secondary for 2 short-yardage runs.  2 plays, -3 yards, -1.5 YPP.

Big Nickel (28): This version of the nickel included 2 down linemen, 2 OLB, 2 ILB, 2 CB, and 3 S and was the most common Ravens package.  These plays included 13 runs for 81 yards and 15 passes for 70 yards. 28 plays, 151 yards, 5.4 YPP, 1 sack.

Uncovered Nickel (5): This version of the nickel included 3 down linemen, 1 OLB, 2 ILB, 2 CB, and 3 S as an early-down alternative to big nickel.  This package included Brent Urban replacing an OLB.  These plays included 4 runs for 6 yards and 1 pass for 21 yards. 5 plays, 27 yards, 5.4 YPP.

Dime (18): The Ravens used a 3-safety version of the dime with 1 DL and either 3 OLB/1 ILB or 2 OLB/2 ILB.  These included 5 runs for 19 yards and 13 passes for -10 net yards.  18 plays, 9 yards, 0.5 YPP, 2 sacks, 1 TO.

Of these dime snaps, 5 included Simpson as a roving pass rusher (he lined up standing inside and outside) with only 1 defensive lineman. The Ravens alternatively used 3 OLBs on the other 13 dime snaps.  Jones participated in all but 1 dime play (Q4, 1:08, Bryan).

Pass Rush

Orr committed numbers that were just slightly above average but unleashed a dizzying array of deception, particularly after Shedeur Sanders entered the game.  The results were uniformly outstanding.

For the game, the Browns’ QBs had ATS on 8 of 29 drop backs (28%) which is approximately average.  Those plays gained 68 yards (8.5 YPP).  However, they also delivered the ball before pressure could develop (BOQ) 9 times (31%) primarily screens, swings, and slants for 21 yards (2.3 YPP).  The Ravens generated a pressure event on 12 plays (41%), including 3 sacks and 1 TO, for a net of -8 yards (-0.7 YPP).

Gabriel fell short of expectation by 3 yards (61 actual less 64 expected, -0.3 YPP) relative to the standard for his opportunity set.  Sanders fell short of expectation by 81 yards (20 actual less 101 expected, -4.5 YPP). If one deducts 15 yards of intentional grounding penalties, Sanders was 96 yards below expectation (-5.3 YPP).

Summarizing by number of pass rushers:

3: 1 play, 0 yards

4: 18 plays, 106 yards, 5.9 YPP, 1 sack

5: 10 plays, -25 yards, -2.5 YPP, 2 sacks, 1 TO

6+: None

Total: 29 plays, 81 yards, 2.8 YPP, 3 sacks, 1 TO

Orr used 12 individual blitzes (.41 per pass play) from off the LoS, including 4 doubles.  No player had more than 3 blitzes (Hamilton and Martin each had 3).  These 8 plays resulted in 6 pressures, 2 BOQ, and -25 net yards (-3.1 YPP). 

The Ravens stunted 5 times, all singles. These 5 plays totaled -3 yards, (-0.6 YPP).  This does not include 15 penalty yards for intentional grounding.

The Ravens showed simulated pressure 7 times (24%) with 2, 3, or 4 dropping from the LoS on each occasion.  These included 2 sacks, 3 QHs, 1 other pressure, and 1 BOQ. 7 plays, -27 yards, -3.9 YPP, 2 sacks.

I define a deceptive pass rush as incorporating 2 or more of the above elements (off ball blitzes, stunts, and simulated pressures).  The Ravens ran 6 deceptive rushes (21%) which included 2 sacks and 4 incomplete passes for -27 yards (-4.5 YPP).  

Dre’Mont Jones led the team with contributions to 4 pressures (2 QHs, 2 pressures). Among the others, 3 players had 2 pressure contributions, Simpson (QH with IG, QH), Starks (QH, pressure), and Van Noy (S-7, QH).

Extended Treatment

Kyle Hamilton

  • (Q1, 2:52): He was bearing down on RB Sampson 2 yards [1] as Gabriel overthrew him
  • (Q1, 0:46): On 3rd/7, he assisted Buchanan on tackle of TE Fannin PM1 (1 + 0) [2] to force punt
  • (Q2, 12:43): He had trailing coverage of WR Tillman PL21 (17 + 4) [1]
  • (Q2, 11:58): He knocked back LG Bitonio into RB Judkins then tackled RM-1
  • (Q2, 1:12): He tackled designed Gabriel RL1 with Gilman
  • (Q3, 10:54): On 3rd/8, he rushed through right A-gap and spun past RB Ford for S-13 with FF recovered by RG Teller
  • (Q3, 4:44): On 3rd/10, he set pick on RB Ford allowing Van Noy stunt for QH as Sanders threw INT to Wiggins
  • (Q3, 4:28): He delivered PD/near INT in front of Tillman, then kicked ball for DoG flag
  • (Q4, 14:01): WR Bond outraced him to left edge for RL8 reverse
  • (Q4, 13:19): He was blocked by TE Fannin as part of Judkins RR16
  • (Q4, 12:29): On 2nd/10, he beat WR Tillman on left edge, crossed formation, and tackled Judkins RR-2
  • (Q4, 4:48): He delivered PD in coverage of Fannin 5 yards [2] to bring up 3rd/10
  • (Q4, 1:51): He cleaned up MT by Awuzie to force WR Jeudy OOB PR10 (2 + 8) [4]
  • (Q4, 1:16): He made open-field, shoestring tackle of Sanders RM5 and appeared to hurt shoulder on play
      

Kyle was again all over the field in a game of cartoonish effectiveness.  He had contributions to 3 drive-ending plays to go with 9 tackles, 3 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 FF, and 2 PDs.  The latter 5 stats have already been combined into a “freak-show” combination which has been accomplished just 1 other time by any NFL player in the since 2001 (Peter Boulware in 2001 opener vs Chicago, who had identical stats save 1 more tackle).  “Freak show” is a term originated by Bill James to describe a player that meets the minimum in several (sometimes unrelated) stats where other players must meet or exceed each minimum. 

Hamilton’s game was a great one by any accounting, but the shoulder injury he suffered on his final highlight above was a scary moment for the Ravens season and fairly raises questions about his durability for his current role.

Chidobe Awuzie

  • (Q1, 14:56): He tackled WR Corley PL2 (-1 + 3) [1] with assist Gilman
  • (Q2, 1:55): Gabriel completed PL26 (16 + 10) [2] to Tillman between Buchanan and him in zone
  • (Q2, 1:18): He delivered QT on Jeudy PL4 (4 + 0) [1]
  • (Q2, 1:06): On 3rd/5, he had tight, trailing coverage of TE Fannin as pass was low, incomplete to force FG
  • (Q3, 4:48): He undercut Jeudy for PD 5 yards [1]
  • (Q4, 2:31): Sanders completed PM25 (20 + 5) [3] between Awuzie, Buchanan and Smith in zone as Starks and Awuzie tackled
  • (Q4, 2:00): He had tight coverage of Jeudy 13 yards [2] as low pass was ruled PD from behind
  • (Q4, 1:51): He was nearest in zone as Sanders completed PR10 (2 + 8) [4] to Jeudy and MT at 6 yards
  • (Q4, 1:08): On 3rd/5, he pried free pass for WR Larvadain in EZ for PD by playing hands

The Browns had 2 chances to score the game-tying TD on the final drive.  The first was overthrown with Martin in coverage and the second was Awuzie’s PD (Q4, 1:08), which was the game’s biggest defensive play.  Awuzie had a tough draw at RCB (no traveling) where he primarily had Jerry Jeudy at X working with the lion’s share of the space budget.  He surrendered 39 yards on 7 targets to improve his season YPT to 5.7.

Keyon Martin

  • (Q2, 8:52): On 3rd/6, he reached across WR Jeudy for PD at goal line to force FG
  • (Q3, 10:54): On 3rd/8, he blitzed off slot left and leapt to force Sanders to bring ball down as Hamilton delivered S-13, to force punt
  • (Q3, 1:53): On 3rd/6, he blitzed off slot right through B-gap for S-14 off initial pressure/MT by D. Jones, to force punt
  • (Q4, 11:48): On 3rd/12, he shed block from RB Ford to push Sanders OOB RL6 to force punt
  • (Q4, 1:16): He was trailing in coverage of WR Bond in endzone but Sanders overthrew under pressure from T. Jones

Martin played SCB in dime packages when Hamilton moved to WLB (dimeback).  He logged just 18 snaps but delivered contributions to 4 drive-ending plays and did not allow any receptions.  The Browns averaged just 0.5 YPP (9 yards on 18 plays) on his snaps.

Dre’Mont Jones

  • (Q1, 4:50): He was blocked by pulling LG Bitonio as part of RB Judkins RM13
  • (Q1, 4:14): He overpursued but bubbled Judkins RR7 tackled by Starks
  • (Q1, 3:32): He was kicked out by RT Conklin as part of Judkins RM12
  • (Q2, 11:06): On 3rd/18, he diagnosed screen to WR Corley PR7 (-4 + 11) [4] and pursued for tackle to force punt
  • (Q2, 8:52): On 3rd/6, he bulled LT Leveston and was pancaked to flush Gabriel left on what became drive-ending incomplete
  • (Q2, 1:12): He forced Gabriel outside on RL1 tackled by Hamilton/Gilman
  • (Q3, 1:53): He beat C Pocic left for fast pressure and MT on sack at -12, cleaned up by Martin S-14
  • (Q4, 4:48): He beat RT Conklin inside for QH off initial pressure from Jenkins as Sanders threw incomplete
  • (Q4, 1:02): On 4th/5, he beat RG Teller outside for fast pressure then ran down Sanders for QH as Smith delivered PD in coverage of TE Njoku 4 yards [5]

Dre’Mont had a mixed game by results but again delivered regular pressure, including contributions to 3 drive-ending plays.

Defensive MVPs

  1. Kyle Hamilton
  2. Keyon Martin
  3. Chidobe Awuzie

Honorable mention to Teddye Buchanan, Alohi Gilman, John Jenkins, Dre’Mont Jones, Roquan Smith, Kyle Van Noy, Nate Wiggins