4th and Always

The Detroit Lions were successful on 2 of 6 4th-down attempts vs the Ravens on Sunday. 

That excludes a 7th attempt on 4th and 15 which resulted in a holding flag (no play) and subsequent punt on 4th and 25.

Pro-Football-Reference.com has complete 4th-down play data back to 1991 and the 6 attempts falls 1 short of the record for such plays in a game.

The history of teams with a concentration of 4th-down attempts is not good:

  • 7 attempts: 6 times (those teams were 0-6)
  • 6 attempts: 27 times (1-26)
  • 5 attempts: 98 times (11-87)

The previous high against the Ravens was 5 on 3 occasions (2 wins over Cincinnati and the 2018 loss to the Saints).

How about the mighty 2019 Ravens offense?  They converted 17 of 24 fourth downs including 3 of a season-high 4 attempts in the frustrating loss to the Chiefs in week 3.

Let’s review the individual 4th-down attempts for the Lions:

  • (Q2, 4:55):  On 4th/8, Ravens rushed 4 and allowed ATS as Goff threw for WR St. Brown 18 yards [5], incomplete with Maulet in ideal underneath coverage
  • (Q2, 0:21):  On 4th/15, Oweh beat RT Sewell inside but was necktied for a holding flag that negated Goff’s PM25 to St. Brown.  The Lions subsequently punted on 4th/25.
  • (Q3, 11:40):  On 4th/4, Ravens rushed 4/0 and allowed ATS as Goff completed PL15 (8 + 7) [2] to St. Brown
  • (Q3, 9:35):  On 4th/6, Madubuike bulled LT Decker into the cone for pressure, Goff threw for Reynolds 15 yards in back of endzone where the ball was stripped by Smith for near INT
  • (Q3, 4:54):  On 4th/1 from the Ravens 36, Oweh beat TE LaPorta outside for pressure as Goff’s overthrow for WR Williams was intercepted in the endzone by Stone
  • (Q4, 4:59):  On 4th/10, Pierce bulled then beat C Ragnow for pressure as Goff’s pass for TE Green was undercut by Stephens for PD/near INT
  • (Q4, 2:17):  On 4th/5, Goff completed PL6 (5 + 1) [1] to St. Brown with Armour-Davis trailing

A few thoughts on the attempts:

  • The Ravens offense never really made the Lions pay directly for their many 4th-down attempts.  The 4 drives they took possession after a 4th down failure resulted in a fumble, TD on a 92-yard drive, punt, punt.  In the case of the TD, that almost certainly would have been a shorter field had the Lions simply kicked the FG and kicked off.   
  • In the games first 22:15, the Ravens piled up a 28-0 lead and had a 32-9 lead in plays from scrimmage (excluding penalties).  For the rest of the game, the Lions outsnapped the Ravens 63-23 fueled in part by the additional defensive snaps generated on 4th down and ensuing series after successes.
  • I wanted to check the win probability deltas for these decisions, but funny thing…since the first attempt came with the score already 28-0 (Q2, 4:55), none of these attempts had any meaningful impact on win probability.

Sacks

I’m guessing almost everyone reading this knows the Ravens lead the NFL with 29 QB sacks.  They piled on 5 more vs the Lions and had another denied to them by Goff’s intentional grounding.

Here are the top individual totals in the league through games of Sunday:

8: Danielle Hunter and TJ Watt

7.5: Myles Garrett

7: Khalil Mack, Josh Allen, and Trey Hendrickson

6.5: Maxx Crosby and Leonard Floyd

5.5: 7 others, including Justin Madubuike

By comparison, the Ravens SCBs have 6 sacks, including 3 by Kyle Hamilton, 2 by Arthur Maulet, and 1 by Ar’Darius Washington.  Incredibly, those 3 players have rushed the QB just a combined 30 times this season (Trey Hendrickson, for example, has 165 through 6 games).

London

The London timing and decisions must now be considered one of the top organizational moves of 2023.  To summarize:

  • The team left early for London after a demoralizing loss to the Steelers
  • They acclimated to GMT and beat the Titans (who arrived Friday) soundly at Tottenham
  • They refused to take their bye early and returned from their business trip to a normal week of prep for Sunday
  • They played their toughest opponent of the season and trounced them 38-6
  • They conserved their week-12 bye where it should remain quite useful

This was planned out very well and I suspect John Harbaugh is the largest single force (or at least the gatekeeper) behind the decision/timing.

Packages

Note: all snap totals exclude penalties resulting in no play, kneels, spikes, and specials team plays resulting in a run or pass.  As such, they will be lower than other published totals.

The Lions ran 72 such snaps.

Base (4): The Ravens used their 4-DB/3-DL package just 4 times with the last occurrence early in the second half (Q3, 10:21).  These included 2 runs for 7 yards and 2 passes for 14.  4 plays, 21 yards, 5.3 YPP.

Standard Nickel (68): The Ravens used the standard nickel as the primary response to the Lions 11 and 12 personnel packages in addition to twice where LB Rodriguez entered as a FB.  The Ravens ended their platooning at LCB/RCB with Humphrey and Stephens playing full time prior to retiring in the 4th quarter.  These plays included 12 runs for 77 and 56 pass plays for 239.  68 plays, 316 yards, 4.6 YPP.

Pass Rush

Macdonald again minimized the use of numbers but used a combination of stunts and blitzes to turn Jared Goff, MVP candidate back into Jittery Jared.

For the game, Goff had ATS on 16 of 58 drop backs (28%).  On those 16 plays, he went 10 of 16 for 104 yards (6.5 YPP).  He also delivered the ball before pressure could develop (BOQ) 17 times (29%, 5.4 YPP).  The Ravens generated a pressure event on 25 plays (43%), including 5 sacks, an intentional grounding, and 1 interception.  With pressure, Goff was 11 of 20 for 56 net yards (2.8 YPP).

Summarizing by number of pass rushers:

3 or fewer: 1 play, 0 yards

4: 47 plays, 180 yards, 3.8 YPP, 4 sacks

5: 8 plays, 68 yards, 8.5 YPP, 1 sack, 1 TO

6+: 2 plays, 5 yards, 2.5 YPP

Total:  58 plays, 253 yards, 4.4 YPP, 5 sacks, 1 TO

Macdonald dialed up 15 individual blitzes (.26 per pass play) from off the LoS including 4 pairs.  Of the 15 blitzes, 8 came from ILB, 3 from SCB and 4 from outside CBs Stephens and Humphrey.  On those 11 plays, the Lions gained 34 yards (3.1 YPP) with 2 sacks and 1 INT.

The Ravens stunted 20 times including 6 pairs, all singles.  These plays resulted in 73 net yards (5.2 YPP). 

The Ravens showed simulated pressure on 5 occasions (9%) where 2 or more (3 players 3 times) dropped from the LoS.  Goff completed 1 of 4 passes for -3 net yards (-0.6 YPP), including 1 sack.

I define a deceptive pass rush as incorporating 2 or more of the above elements (off ball blitzes, stunts, and simulated pressures).  The Ravens ran 12 deceptive rushes (21%) on which the Lions gained 8 net yards (0.7 YPP).

Madubuike and Van Noy tied for the team lead with contributions to 5 pass rush events.  Justin had 1 sack, 1 QH (intentional grounding), and 3 pressures.  Kyle had 2 sacks and contributions to 3 other pressures.  Odafe Oweh had contributions to 4 pressures, including a sack fumble and drew a holding flag on RT Sewell.  Travis Jones had 4 pressures, including a QH.

Star Treatment

Justin Madubuike

  • (Q1, 9:56):  On 3rd/6, he set a pick in the right A-gap then beat C Ragnow inside for S-13 to force punt as Pierce looped to peel RG Vaitai
  • (Q1, 2:03):  On 3rd/4, Clowney twisted inside over Madubuike to bull RG Vaitai for pressure, Justin also bulled RT Sewell for pressure as Goff threw off target 13 yards [5] for TE LaPorta with tight coverage from Hamilton to force punt.
  • (Q2, 1:37):  He bulled LT Decker into the cone for pressure as Goff threw PL7 to LaPorta
  • (Q2, 0:34):  On 3rd/3, he beat RG Vaitai for a fast QH as Goff intentionally grounded the ball to deny S-12
  • (Q3, 9:35):  On 4th/6, he bulled LT Decker into the cone for pressure as Goff’s pass for WR Reynolds in the back of the endzone was stripped and nearly intercepted by Smith
  • (Q3, 1:58):  He was sealed by TE LaPorta as part of RB Gibbs RL9

Justin lined up on the edge several times, usually with Clowney inside.  When he did so, he was too much for LT Decker.  Despite the fact he lost one to Goff’s intentional grounding, his 5.5 sacks are now tied with Chris Jones for the NFL lead among all interior defensive linemen through Sunday’s games.

Travis Jones

  • (Q2, 2:13):  He bulled LG Glasgow for pressure as Goff threw PM3 to RB Gibbs
  • (Q2, 1:31):  On 2nd/3, he bulled C Ragnow then LG Glasgow for pressure across cone as Goff threw low, incomplete for St. Brown
  • (Q3, 5:30):  On 3rd/1, he swam past C Ragnow to tackle RB Reynolds RM0 with assist Van Noy
  • (Q4, 8:43):  On 3rd/3, he bulled C Ragnow into Goff for QH as the QB threw to TE LaPorta for PR5 conversion
  • (Q4, 2:58):  On 3rd/10, he bulled C Ragnow for fast pressure as Goff threw PM5 to St. Brown

Travis had a big game vs. 2-time Pro Bowler Frank Ragnow and made contributions vs. run and pass in 34 snaps.  Of his 3 tackle contributions, 2 were defensive wins.

Odafe Oweh

  • (Q2, 0:21):  On 4th/15, he beat RG Sewell inside and drew offensive holding to negate PM25 to St. Brown and force punt
  • (Q3, 13:03):  He beat LT Decker inside then clubbed the ball free with his left hand for S-5 recovered by Goff
  • (Q3, 9:42):  On 3rd/6, he stunted past C Ragnow for pressure to flush Goff right where he threw incomplete
  • (Q3, 4:54):  On 4th/1, he beat TE LaPorta outside for pressure as Goff’s overthrow for WR Williams was intercepted by Stone
  • (Q4, 6:41):  On 2nd/2, he spun past LT Decker inside for pressure despite help block from LG Glasgow as Goff threw PL6 to St. Brown

Odafe had an immediate impact in his first game back from which it’s hard to find anything but positive portent.

Arthur Maulet

  • (Q2, 12:18):  On 2nd/7, he blitzed untouched off slot left for S-9
  • (Q2, 11:38):  On 3rd/16, he and Smith converged to tackle TE LaPorta PL13 (7 + 6) [2] to force punt
  • (Q2, 5:45):  On 2nd/12, he attempted to undercut the route of St. Brown but Goff grounded the ball at his feet, incomplete
  • (Q2, 4:55):  On 4th/8, he had ideal underneath coverage of St. Brown 18 yards [5] as Goff threw incomplete 
  • (Q2, 0:52):  On 2nd/11, he was trailing in coverage on St. Brown’s PM8 (7 + 1) [4]
  • (Q3, 15:00):  He filled quickly to upend Gibbs RM3 off good edge set from Clowney
  • (Q3, 11:40):  On 4th/4, he was trailing as Goff completed PL15 (8 + 7) [2] to St. Brown
  • (Q3, 6:00):  He was directed to the ground by LG Glasgow as part of screen to RB Reynolds PR9 (-3 + 12) [4]
  • (Q4, 15:00):  On 3rd/19, he rushed unblocked off ORS for pressure but Smith’s RTP was tacked on to PR11 to TE LaPorta for conversion
  • (Q4, 14:05):  He was sealed by WR Reynolds on Gibbs RL21 TD
  • (Q4, 7:16):  He missed the tackle at 5 yards on LaPorta PR8 (4 + 4) [4]
  • (Q4, 5:47):  On 2nd/7, he was trailing as Goff completed PR12 (6 + 6) [5] to St. Brown
  • (Q4, 5:13):  He had ideal underneath coverage of WR Raymond as Goff grounded the ball 4 yards [4]

Goff picked on Maulet, primarily as a means to feed the ball to his favorite target, Amon Ra St.Brown.  St. Brown was targeted 19 times for 102 yards (5.4 YPP).

Defensive MVPs

  1. Kyle Van Noy
  2. Justin Madubuike
  3. Odafe Oweh

Honorable mention to Geno Stone, Roquan Smith, Travis Jones, Arthur Maulet, Patrick Queen, and Brandon Stephens.