Was 2023 a successful season?

The Ravens fell to the Chiefs 17-10 in the AFCC in a game their fans will probably want to forget.

The first half was marked by an inability to get the Chiefs offense off the field on the first 2 drives as KC built the lead they would never surrender.  As the defense pitched a shutout in the second half, the offense missed multiple opportunities and suffered costly turnovers.

The pain of this loss will linger, but it’s probably not too early to ask if this was a successful season.  Let’s review:

2023 was a successful season because:

  • The Ravens had a number of historical performances (individual and team) in terms of DVOA
  • It was the most balanced team in Ravens history with outstanding play on offense, defense, and special teams
  • Prior to the AFCC, the Ravens clubbed every top team (3+ games over .500) they faced by 2+ TDs
  • The Ravens took their shot including significant future cap borrowing to win with a roster that is expected to lose a large number of free agents
  • They re-signed Lamar Jackson and he played an MVP season
  • On balance, the free agents they signed (Clowney, Van Noy, Maulet, Beckham, Darby, Ya-Sin, Agholor) provided value above cap cost
  • They earned the number 1 seed and finally played the AFCC in front of their home fans

2023 was unsuccessful because:

  • The Ravens overspent on some players who did not provide value (Beckham, Ya-Sin)
  • That overspending will make it difficult to sign another cornerstone player (such as Madubuike) this offseason
  • The Ravens were unable to win a championship with a fine 2020 draft class (Queen, Dobbins, Madubuike, Duvernay, Stone) who are UFAs now
  • The team did not address a looming OT situation which will now require significant resources over the next 2 seasons
  • The team fell 2 games short of cementing their legacy as one of the great teams in NFL history

While this game hurts, I think it’s difficult not to look at 2023 as a success.  The team played great football despite facing only 3 teams with losing records the entire season.  The path to a Super Bowl always requires a combination of luck and peaking at the right time on which the Ravens fell short.  The organizational philosophy of levelized competition is a good one for providing regular opportunities for such runs and I don’t think the Ravens overspent by so much that they can’t be competitive in 2024.

Packages

Note: all snap totals exclude penalties resulting in no play, kneels, spikes, and specials team plays resulting in a run or pass.  As such, they will be lower than other published totals.

The Chiefs ran 70 such snaps.

Jumbo (2): The Ravens used 4 defensive linemen and just 3 DBs twice on the final Chiefs series.  2 plays, 1 yard, 0.5 YPP.

Base (14): The Ravens used their 4-DB/3-DL package 14 times, vs. both 12 and 13 personnel.  Each such alignment included Harrison at OLB.  These included 8 runs for 33 yards and 6 pass plays for 4 yards.  14 plays, 37 yards, 2.6 YPP, 1 sack.

Standard Nickel (31): The Ravens used their standard nickel as the primary response to the Chiefs 11 personnel packages with Hamilton at strong safety and Maulet or Washington at SCB.  These plays included 10 runs for 38 yards and 21 pass plays for 173 net yards.  31 plays, 211 yards, 6.8 YPP.

Big Nickel (23):  The Ravens used the big nickel as a response to both 11 and 12 personnel.  Each big nickel snap included Hamilton at SCB and Stone at SS.  These plays included 9 runs for 20 and 14 pass plays for 53 yards.  23 plays, 73 yards, 3.2 YPP, 1 sack.

Pass Rush

Macdonald used 5or more pass rushers on 9 of 41 plays (22%) resulting in a pass and used modest amounts of deception.

For the game, Mahomes had ATS on 9 of 41 drop backs (22%).  On those 9 plays, they averaged 7.4 YPP.  He also delivered the ball before pressure could develop (BOQ) 19 times (46%, 5.1 YPP).  The Ravens generated a pressure event on 13 plays (32%) on which the Chiefs gained 67 yards (5.2 YPP). 

Summarizing by number of pass rushers:

3 or fewer: 2 plays, 1 yard

4: 30 plays, 193 yards, 6.4 YPP, 2 sacks

5: 7 plays, 21 yards, 3.0 YPP

6+: 2 plays, 15 yards, 7.5 YPP

Total:  41 plays, 230 yards, 5.6 YPP, 2 sacks

Macdonald called 13 individual blitzes (.32 per pass play) from off the LoS, 9 singles and 2 doubles.  On those 11 plays, the Chiefs gained 59 yards (5.4 YPP).

The Ravens stunted 6 times among 5 plays (.15 per pass play), 4 singles and 1 double.  Those plays resulted in 73 yards (14.6 YPP). 

The Ravens used simulated pressure 6 times resulting in 45 yards (7.5 YPP), in each case dropping 2 from the line of scrimmage.

I define a deceptive pass rush as incorporating 2 or more of the above elements (off ball blitzes, stunts, and simulated pressures).  The Ravens schemed 5 such plays on which Chiefs gained 38 yards (7.9 YPP).

In words, Mahomes reduced the Ravens pressure rate with a number of quick throws which made stunting ineffective.  When he did face pressure, he was outstanding, including the game-sealing, 32-yard pass to Valdez-Scantling.

Madubukie led the team with contributions to 4 pressure events, including 3 full pressures and 1 shared sack.  Pierce contributed to 3 events, 2 full pressures and ½ sack. 

Star Treatment

Justin Madubuike

  • (Q1, 12:53):  He bulled LG Allegretti into Mahomes for pressure as he completed PL10 to RB Pacheco
  • (Q1, 11:51):  He was sealed by LT Smith on Pacheco RL12
  • (Q1, 11:09):  He worked off block by LG Allegretti to assist Queen on RB Edwards-Helaire RL1
  • (Q1, 4:58):  He beat RG Smith outside and was pushed down at the feet of Mahomes for pressure as he unloaded PR3 to Pacheco
  • (Q2, 7:48):  He shed RG Smith to tackle Pacheco RR1 after direct snap
  • (Q2, 0:56):  On 2nd/5, he beat RG Smith outside for pressure with Van Noy negated by Jones RTP
  • (Q2, 0:26):  On 3rd/4, he beat RG Smith outside and was tackled to draw holding flag which negated Mahomes RR9
  • (Q2, 0:20):  On 3rd/14, he beat RG Smith inside and was again held to negate PL33 TD to WR Rice
  • (Q3, 15:00):  He shed RG Smith inside to tackle Pacheco RR1
  • (Q3, 11:38):  He was sealed by LT Smith as part of Pacheco RL6
  • (Q4, 12:24):  He beat LG Allegretti inside for near sack but Mahomes landed on top of him, got up, and was sacked by Clowney
  • (Q4, 6:02):  On 2nd/6, he bulled LG Allegretti into Mahomes then shed him for S-2 shared with Pierce

Justin was too much for both guards in 1-on-1 matchups. I expect the Ravens will try to resolve the potential franchise tag situation with Madubuike as soon as possible.

Kyle Hamilton

  • (Q1, 13:26):  He closed from 10 yards off ball to tackle TE Kelce PR4 (-1 + 5) [4]
  • (Q1, 12:21):  He tackled WR Rice PR11 (-3 + 14) [4] as SS
  • (Q1, 7:46):  He had tight coverage of Kelce but Mahomes threw back shoulder PR19 (19 + 0) [5] TD
  • (Q1, 3:44):  He penetrated unblocked to tackle Pacheco RM-2
  • (Q1, 2:23):  On 3rd/1, he attempted to defend TE screen in backfield but Mahomes lobbed over his head to Kelce PL6 (-2 + 8) [2] and Hamilton recovered to tackle
  • (Q2, 6:23):  On 4th/1, he penetrated unblocked off ORS to tackle Pacheco RL0 for turnover on downs
  • (Q2, 3:49):  He had bracket coverage with Williams on WR Rice 41 yards [4] which fell incomplete after collision
  • (Q2, 3:42):  He shed WR Watson to tackle Rice PR0 (-3 + 3) [4]
  • (Q2, 3:01):  On 3rd/10, he blitzed through the left B-gap to flush Mahomes right and delivered QH as ball was thrown away
  • (Q2, 1:27):  He undercut Pacheco PR5 (-1 + 6) [5] in open field
  • (Q3, 8:34):  Van Noy drew OH on RT Taylor to negate incomplete where Hamilton had tight coverage of TE Gray
  • (Q3, 8:28):  On 2nd/17, he tackled RB Edwards-Helaire PR2 (-3 + 5) [5]
  • (Q4, 14:03):  On 3rd/7, he was picked off Kelce by WR Watson who shouldered him hard but OPI was not flagged on PL14 (9 + 5) [1] conversion
  • (Q4, 11:34):  On 2nd/19, he made downhill tackle of Rice PR6 (3 + 3) [4] to bring up 3rd/13
  • (Q4, 5:55):  On 3rd/8, he appeared to be held by Rice but drew no flag as Queen tackled Pacheco RL5 to force punt

Despite the TD allowed to Kelce, Hamilton had another outstanding game.  The Ravens were much more successful with him at SCB in big nickel (3.2 YPP) than when he was SS in standard nickel (6.8 YPP).  He made contributions to 2 drive-ending plays.

Kyle Van Noy

  • (Q1, 7:46):  He bulled RT Taylor for pressure (no hold called) as Kelce caught PR19 TD
  • (Q2, 14:13):  On 3rd/5, after 6+ seconds in pocket he delivered late QH on Mahomes who shotput PM10 (10 + 0) [3] to Kelce
  • (Q2, 1:46):  He was flagged for UR on chest bump of Kelce instigated by Kelce/Queen interaction
  • (Q2, 0:56):  He beat LT Smith outside for pressure negated by Jones RTP
  • (Q3, 8:34):  He beat RT Taylor outside to force holding
  • (Q3, 7:45):  On 3rd/15, he diagnosed screen right and tackled Pacheco PR-4 (-7 + 3) [4] to force punt

Kyle delivered a career-high 9 sacks in 14 games for the Ravens this season.  He’ll be 33 in March which may put him in a large pool of veteran OLBs who compete for relatively few jobs and cap dollars.

Michael Pierce

  • (Q4, 14:09):  He bulled then shed RG Smith outside to flush Mahomes right, Smith delivered late QH as Mahomes threw incomplete for TE Gray
  • (Q4, 6:02):  On 2nd/6, he shared S-2 off initial pressure from Madubuike
  • (Q4, 2:28):  He stood up LG Allegretti then tackled Pacheco RM-1 after Queen missed
  • (Q4, 2:19):  On 3rd/9, he twisted to bull LT Smith for pressure as Mahomes completed game-sealing PM32 to WR Valdes-Scantling

Michael came to life with a big 4th quarter against the Chiefs.  The Ravens entered training camp with only Travis Jones signed for 2024.  It is now possible that all 5 of the iron men who took every Ravens DL snap this season (Jones, Madubuike, Pierce, Urban, and Washington) will return for 2024.

I do not award defensive MVPs after a loss.